Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to follow, leaving the question of which other club will join them at the bottom. With Leeds United and Nottingham Forest now comfortably eight and five points clear of the relegation zone, the fight for survival seems to have narrowed to a two‑team showdown between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The two London clubs are separated by a mere two points, occupying 17th and 18th place respectively, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of dropping down a division is looming for both sides. West Ham may look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull ahead – a win would have left Spurs further adrift – but the situation remains delicately balanced.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep a positive tone. His counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, echoed that optimism, insisting his side can win their remaining five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised Spurs’ progress under the Italian coach. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," Carragher said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than a point from it." Despite that encouragement, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrying. After a loss to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to fifteen matches – more than double the length of any other club’s run. The next longest unbeaten run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have avoided defeat for seven games. Breaking the fifteen‑match drought will be a tall order, even against a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable.
I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a standing start, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s season around. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their improvement stretches back further. The turning point came in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson scored a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 victory for West Ham. Since that moment, the club has posted the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from twelve matches – an average of 1.6 points per game, up from a meagre 0.7 points per game earlier in the campaign.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have found a brief resurgence, enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s opponents have an average league position of 11, slightly easier than West Ham’s average of 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, home‑away distribution favours the Hammers, who will play three of their final five games at the London Stadium, whereas Spurs have only two home fixtures.
Tottenham’s schedule includes intimidating away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. They have not won any of their last seven Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge, and they have lost their previous five encounters with Chelsea as well as their last four games against Aston Villa. West Ham’s away challenges involve Brentford and Newcastle, while they must also host title‑challenger Arsenal. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday.
Forest’s remaining programme is arguably the toughest of the three, based on opponent rankings. Like Tottenham, they have three away games, with trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Yet, according to Opta’s analysis, the safety threshold could be 38 points. Forest, now on 36 points after a crucial win over Burnley, may need only one more victory to reach that mark. "If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a source close to the club suggested.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the matchday squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could feature in the run‑in.
Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs. Cristian Romero was ruled out for the final stretch after the Sunderland defeat, and other key players such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most vital attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season. By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health.
Premier Injuries data shows that the only sidelined player is third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański, giving Nuno a much broader selection of options than De Zerbi, who must cope with a depleted roster. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the clear favourites for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% probability of dropping out of the Premier League, significantly higher than West Ham’s 36.9% chance.
Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk sits at a modest 4.4%, while 15th‑placed Leeds United appear almost safe with a 0.4% probability after reaching 39 points. The expected points projection from Opta suggests Tottenham will finish the season on 37 points, two points shy of West Ham’s projected 39. This leaves De Zerbi with a daunting task to reverse fortunes in the final weeks.
In summary, with only five games remaining, the battle for survival has effectively become a two‑way contest between West Ham and Tottenham. Both clubs must capitalize on every remaining opportunity, manage injuries wisely, and navigate a demanding fixture list if they hope to avoid joining Wolves and Burnley at the bottom of the table. The final stretch promises high drama, and the outcome will hinge on which side can muster the consistency and resilience needed to stay up.