The final phase of the Scottish Premiership is set to unfold over the next five matches, and three clubs are locked in a battle for the league crown. The post‑split schedule begins this weekend, promising the kind of drama that has defined an already extraordinary campaign.
Celtic have the chance to level on points with the leaders on Saturday if they can overcome Falkirk at home in a match that will be broadcast live on Sky Sports. A win would bring the Hoops level with Hearts, who sit on top of the table with five games remaining, while Rangers trail by a single point and Celtic sit two points further back. Despite spending most of the season in the rear‑guard of the title race, Rangers have now become the bookmakers' favourites, and the Opta analytical engine concurs.
According to the super‑computer, Danny Röhl’s Rangers are the most likely to finish first on 16 May, with Derek McInnes’ Hearts projected to finish second and Celtic third. The stakes are high for all three clubs. Rangers have not finished outside the top two since 1995, and Hearts have not broken the Old Firm duopoly since they finished runners‑up in 2006 – the last time they even topped the table was back in 1960. The coming weeks will be a test of whether the data‑driven forecasts and betting odds can be overturned by on‑field performances.
Three‑way title contests are a rarity in Scottish football. The most genuine recent example came in 1983 when Dundee United won their final six games to clinch the league by a single point ahead of Celtic and Aberdeen. A similar three‑way tussle unfolded in 1998, when Hearts, Celtic and Rangers were all in contention until the final day.
In that season, a derby loss left Hearts with just two points from five games, Rangers faltered, and Celtic – despite losing to Rangers in their head‑to‑head – ultimately won the championship by a two‑point margin, ending Rangers’ bid for a historic ten‑in‑a‑row. Going back twelve years earlier, Hearts again missed out on the title. With two matches left they were level with Celtic and Dundee United, but United’s penultimate defeat knocked them out.
Hearts needed only a draw on the final day but lost, allowing Celtic to claim the crown on goal difference after a 5‑0 demolition of St Mirren. These historical precedents underline how thin the margins are in a three‑team race, and both Hearts and Rangers supporters will be hoping that history does not repeat itself. Celtic fans, meanwhile, may allow themselves a glimmer of optimism. Celtic’s path to the current showdown has been anything but smooth.
After Brendan Rodgers’ departure, the club cycled through three managers in quick succession – Wilfried Nancy was sacked after just 33 days, and Martin O’Neill was appointed to steady a ship that seemed to be sinking. Under O’Neill, Celtic have rediscovered form and now sit within touching distance of the title. Their home record in the run‑in is impressive: four wins in the last five league games at Parkhead, compared with Rangers’ solitary away victory in five matches and Hearts’ single point from five away fixtures.
Celtic also enjoy a scheduling advantage. They have three home games left in the final stretch, while both Rangers and Hearts must travel for three of their remaining fixtures.
Home advantage could prove decisive, especially given Celtic’s recent 6‑2 victory over St Mirren – a result that put them on the brink of a potential league‑and‑cup double, something that seemed a distant dream only months earlier. Although four of those six goals came after extra time, the win still demonstrates Celtic’s attacking potency. Head‑to‑head results add another layer of intrigue.
Hearts travelled to Celtic Park in December and secured a win, while Rangers also beat Celtic at Ibrox earlier in the season and will meet them again on 10 May at Parkhead. Conversely, Hearts have already defeated Rangers at Tynecastle ahead of their May 4 clash. These reciprocal victories mean that no single team has a clear psychological edge. Both managers have used the brief pause before the final Edinburgh derby to fine‑tune their squads.
McInnes described the break as a chance for his players to enjoy a “calm” before the decisive match that could hand Hearts their first top‑flight title since 1960. Röhl echoed the sentiment, calling the interval a “little bit of time for recovery” and an opportunity to “refresh the mind” while polishing minor details.
Social media is abuzz with fan speculation about how the title race could be resolved on the final day. One scenario sees all three clubs still mathematically alive on 16 May, with Celtic hosting Hearts and Rangers travelling to Falkirk – the team they thrashed 6‑3 in the last pre‑split encounter.
If Hearts are eliminated before the finale, their supporters may find themselves torn between cheering for Celtic or Rangers, depending on which outcome feels less painful after a season of near‑misses. For a club that has claimed 13 titles in the past 14 seasons, the prospect of seeing the Old Firm lose the crown to a rival is a bitter pill to swallow. Yet the possibility of the green‑and‑white backing the maroon‑and‑white in a historic triumph after a 40‑year wait adds a romantic twist to the narrative. In a season defined by unexpected twists, managerial upheavals and fierce competition, the final weeks promise to deliver whatever drama Scottish football fans have come to expect.
Whether the Opta model proves accurate, the bookmakers are right, or an underdog defies the odds, the climax on 16 May will be remembered as one of the most compelling title races in recent memory.