Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics and insight to illuminate the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus revolves around three key storylines: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑force attacking approach after the arrival of Isak, and a player worth keeping an eye on over the upcoming weekend.
Pep Guardiola has been clear that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is to secure points rather than chase goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," the City manager told Sky Sports.
Yet the fact that the Gunners and the Citizens are separated only by the number of goals they have netted adds a layer of intrigue to the championship showdown. If both clubs finish on equal points, the goal‑scoring record could become the decisive factor. Arsenal drew a sliver of optimism from City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which temporarily lifted the Citizens to the summit of the table. While a win is essential for Arteta’s side, a single result may not be sufficient to close the gap.
The Gunners’ recent performance at the Etihad hinted that they can compete, but they will need to convert that promise into a sustained scoring surge. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not solely an attacking pursuit. "It’s about scoring and, equally, not conceding," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question remains whether they can elevate their offensive output to match City’s firepower.
**Arsenal’s Current Scoring Landscape** Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind Manchester City in the season‑long tally—a gap that is far from insurmountable. A significant part of Arsenal’s goal haul comes from set‑pieces: the team has already registered 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, the highest figure in the league, compared with City’s eight. This advantage stems largely from the aerial prowess of players like Gabriel Martinelli and the precise delivery of midfield orchestrators.
However, the Gunners have hit a dry spell in this area, managing just one set‑piece goal in their last four league matches after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. Reviving that source of goals will be crucial as the season draws to a close. **Open‑Play Creativity and Expected Goals** When it comes to open‑play production, Arsenal have shown encouraging signs. In the recent clash at the Etihad, they posted an expected‑goals (xG) total of 1.32, outpacing City’s 0.98.
This suggests that, despite the 2‑1 loss, the Gunners were creating higher‑quality chances. Kai Havertz, deployed as a makeshift No 9, was central to this improvement. He acted as a target man, holding up the ball, linking play, and constantly threatening the City box. Although he finished with a single goal, his five shots represented the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season.
Havertz’s resurgence coincided with the return of other key figures. Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator on the night, delivering more chances than any other player.
The presence of Ødegaard alongside Eberechi Eze raised Arsenal’s technical level, allowing them to string together more intricate moves in the final third. Looking ahead, Arteta will be eager to keep Havertz, Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka fit for the remaining five fixtures.
Saka, who is on the recovery path from a recent injury, is expected to join his teammates in the line‑up against Newcastle. The last time all three started together was during the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024—over a year ago—highlighting how rare their simultaneous availability has become. **Statistical Insight into Player Combinations** Data reveals that Arsenal’s set‑piece threat remains steady regardless of personnel, with an expected‑goals value of 0.45 per game whether Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka are on the pitch or not. In contrast, open‑play creativity fluctuates markedly: the team averages 1.47 xG when all three are present, but this drops to 1.11 when one or more are missing.
This underscores the importance of fielding the trio together, though it is not a guaranteed solution. Both Havertz and Ødegaard have struggled to find the back of the net recently—Havertz has only two goals in his last 14 league outings, and Ødegaard just one in his last 21. Their supporting cast must also step up. Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for a modest three league goals this season, while Leandro Trossard has failed to score in his last 13 appearances.
Viktor Gyökeres, despite criticism, leads Arsenal’s scoring chart with 12 Premier League goals, nine of which have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. His ability to find the net against lower‑ranked opposition could prove vital in the final stretch.
**Motivation and Mindset** Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle. After a recent interview, Gabriel Martinelli admitted that once a game is won, the squad instinctively pushes for more goals: "When you’re winning, you think, ‘let’s go out and score more,’ because we know it will be tight." **Newcastle’s Parallel Struggles** While Arsenal are fine‑tuning their attack, Newcastle faces a different set of challenges under Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game—their lowest output since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
Their league position has deteriorated to 14th after a third consecutive defeat, this time to Bournemouth. The significant investment in attacking talent—£124 million for Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa—has not yielded returns, as both forwards have failed to score in 24 combined league appearances. Howe is now considering giving Denmark U21 striker William Osula a more prominent role.
Osula has shown promise, scoring in back‑to‑back games, while Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in consecutive seasons, has not replicated that form at Newcastle. The club’s current top scorer is Bruno Guimarães, with nine league goals.
**Other Premier League Fixtures** Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could pose a threat to Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for a Friday Night Football clash, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in a Saturday Night Football showdown, both matches broadcast on Sky Sports.
In summary, Arsenal possess a blend of set‑piece proficiency, emerging open‑play creativity, and a growing belief that they can outscore Manchester City. The key will be maintaining the fitness of their core trio, capitalising on set‑piece chances, and ensuring that supporting players contribute the necessary goals to narrow the gap in the title race.