Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which club will be the third to go down. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the battle for survival seems to have narrowed to a two‑team showdown between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The two London sides are currently separated by just two places – West Ham in 17th and Spurs in 18th – and with only five matches left in the campaign the pressure is mounting on both clubs.
West Ham’s goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday could be seen in hindsight as a missed chance to pull away; a win would have left Tottenham further adrift. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, with every point now vital.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep a positive tone. His counterpart, Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, echoed a similar optimism, insisting his side can win their remaining five fixtures after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Tottenham have shown under De Zerbi’s guidance. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," Carragher said.
"They played very well over the weekend and should have taken more than a single point from that game." Despite that encouragement, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrying. After an opening‑day loss to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to fifteen games – the longest in the division.
The next‑worst run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a victory. Breaking this drought will be a tall order, even against a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December – it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing, but they could nick a point; however, Wolves are a tough opponent with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a difficult start, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around.
The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their resurgence can be traced back to a dramatic win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, when Callum Wilson struck in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 victory. Since that moment, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the league, winning five and losing three from twelve matches, raising their points‑per‑game ratio from 0.7 to 1.6. Forest, meanwhile, are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham appear to have the softer schedule.
Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, home advantage tilts slightly in West Ham’s favour: three of their last five games will be played at the London Stadium, while Tottenham only have two home fixtures. The Hammers still face a daunting itinerary, travelling to Aston Villa (currently fourth) and Chelsea (sixth).
Tottenham have not won any of their last seven Premier League outings at Stamford Bridge, have lost five consecutive matches to Chelsea, and have dropped points in their last four meetings with Villa. West Ham’s away games are against Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host title‑challenger Arsenal. Everton’s David Moyes will be eager for a result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest’s path looks toughest of the three, with three away fixtures that include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Yet, with the survival threshold often cited around 38 points, Forest could be just one win away from safety, having moved to 36 points after their recent win over Burnley. "If they win against Sunderland they’ll be on 39 points and suddenly the gap closes," a commentator noted. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad after a long knee injury lay‑off.
Although he remained an unused substitute, his presence suggested he could feature before the season ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague Spurs.
Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in, and key attackers such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of their most vital creative outlets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.
In contrast, West Ham enjoy near‑perfect fitness levels. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice keeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than De Zerbi. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the favourites for relegation.
The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% chance of dropping out, compared with West Ham’s 36.9% probability. Nottingham Forest’s odds sit at a modest 4.4%, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, have a relegation risk of just 0.4%. According to Opta’s expected points forecast, Tottenham are projected to finish the season on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s anticipated 39.
De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and secure top‑flight status for his club. As the final weeks unfold, every fixture will be scrutinised for its impact on the survival battle. West Ham will look to capitalize on their recent form and home advantage, while Tottenham must find a way to break their winless streak and extract points from a challenging run of games. Nottingham Forest, though facing a tougher schedule, remain within touching distance of safety if they can secure another victory.
The drama of the Premier League’s closing stages promises to keep fans on the edge of their seats, with the ultimate fate of three clubs hanging in the balance.