Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League, and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which other club will share their fate. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the fight for survival is increasingly being reduced to a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both sides are currently occupying the 17th and 18th positions, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches left in the campaign the pressure is mounting for each team.
West Ham might look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull away; a win would have pushed Spurs further down the table. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, and every point earned or dropped will be crucial.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, emphasizing his belief that his side can still turn the tide. His optimism mirrors that of his Tottenham counterpart Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his players are capable of winning their remaining five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. During Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under De Zerbi’s guidance.
"There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," Carragher said. "They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than a single point from that game." Spurs, however, have not escaped their own woes. After a loss to Sunderland at the start of the season, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to fifteen matches – more than twice as long as any other club’s run. The next‑longest unbeaten stretch belongs to Burnley, who have managed seven games without defeat.
Breaking that fifteen‑match drought will be a daunting task, even when they face a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, a fixture that Carragher described as particularly tricky given Wolves’ defensive setup. "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable," Carragher added.
"I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to generate momentum from a low starting point, Nuno has already orchestrated a noticeable turnaround for the Hammers. West Ham have lost only one of their last five league matches, and their resurgence can be traced back to a pivotal moment in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Callum Wilson’s 93rd‑minute winner secured a 2‑1 victory for West Ham, a result that sparked a remarkable improvement.
Since that win, the Hammers have compiled the sixth‑best record in the division, amassing five wins and three defeats from twelve games, raising their points‑per‑game average from 0.7 to 1.6. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have found a brief spell of form, enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley.
When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have a slightly softer schedule. Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, home‑away balance tilts in West Ham’s favour: they will host three of their last five matches, whereas Tottenham have only two home games left.
Tottenham’s remaining itinerary includes challenging trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. The Hammers have never won at Stamford Bridge in their last seven Premier League visits, and they have also lost their most recent five encounters with Chelsea and their last four against Villa. West Ham’s away fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle, while they must also host title‑chasing Arsenal.
Everton’s David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side returns to the London Stadium. Forest’s schedule is arguably the toughest of the three, based on opponent league positions. Like Spurs, they face three away games, with trips to Chelsea and Manchester United looming after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Yet, according to Opta’s survival threshold model, reaching 38 points is often enough to stay up. Forest are now sitting on 36 points after a crucial win over Burnley, meaning a single victory at Sunderland could lift them to 39 and place them just outside the danger zone.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signals that De Zerbi may have an additional creative option for the run‑in. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs. Cristian Romero is out for the remainder of the season, and key attackers such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable.
Kulusevski, arguably the most important offensive weapon alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this campaign. By contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a much broader selection of players than De Zerbi, who must contend with a depleted bench.
Opta’s predictive model, which runs ten‑thousand simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % chance of dropping out, compared with West Ham’s 36.9 % probability. Nottingham Forest’s odds sit at a modest 4.4 %, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, are virtually safe with a 0.4 % relegation risk.
The expected‑points projection from Opta suggests Tottenham will finish the season on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s projected 39. This leaves De Zerbi with a daunting task: to close the gap and secure enough points to avoid the drop.
In summary, as the Premier League draws to a close, the battle for survival has crystallised into a two‑way contest between West Ham and Tottenham. Both clubs possess the talent and the tactical acumen to escape relegation, but injuries, fixture difficulty, and recent form will likely determine which side stays up and which one joins Wolves and Burnley in the Championship. The final five games promise high drama, and every point will be fought for with intensity until the very last whistle.