Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to follow, but which clubs will join them at the bottom? With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points clear, the fight for survival is increasingly shaping up as a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The Hammers and the Spurs are separated by a mere two points, occupying the 17th and 18th spots respectively, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of relegation looms large for both.
West Ham may look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to gain ground; a win would have pushed Tottenham further away from safety. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, emphasizing a hopeful outlook that mirrors the optimism of Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side can still win their final five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have made under De Zerbi, noting that the Italian coach has already left a noticeable imprint on the team's performances.
"There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact in terms of the performances," Carragher said. "They played really well at the weekend and should have got more than one point out of it." Despite that praise, the draw with Brighton extended Tottenham's Premier League winless streak to 15 games – more than double the length of any other club’s run. The next‑longest unbeaten run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have avoided defeat in seven consecutive matches. Breaking that 15‑game drought will be a tall order, even against a Wolves side that has already been consigned to relegation.
Carragher was blunt: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from scratch, Nuno has already turned West Ham’s fortunes around. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and their revival can be traced back to a dramatic win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in January, when Callum Wilson netted a 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 victory.
Since that moment, West Ham have posted the sixth‑best record in the division, amassing five wins and just three defeats from 12 games, raising their points‑per‑game average to 1.6 from a dismal 0.7 earlier in the season. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, enjoy a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a convincing 4‑1 triumph over Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham appears to have the gentlest schedule. Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
However, the location of those matches tilts the balance: West Ham will play three of their last five games at home, whereas Tottenham only have two home fixtures and must travel to the fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Spurs have struggled at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, failing to win any of their last seven visits. They have also lost their previous five encounters with the Blues and their last four against Villa. West Ham’s away itinerary is not simple either; they face Brentford and Newcastle on the road and must also host title‑challenger Arsenal.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side returns to the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest faces the toughest set of opponents based on league positions, with three away games that include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland. Yet, if the survival threshold is indeed 38 points – a figure suggested by Opta’s statistical models – Forest could be just one win away from safety, having moved to 36 points after Sunday’s crucial victory over Burnley.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a source close to the club suggested. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could feature in the run‑in. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs.
Cristian Romero is out for the remainder of the season, and key attackers such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably the most vital creative outlet alongside Maddison, has not featured all season. By contrast, West Ham enjoy an almost pristine injury list. Premier Injuries reports that only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański is sidelined, giving Nuno a wealth of options that De Zerbi simply does not have.
Opta’s predictive table – built on hundreds of thousands of data points and 10,000 simulation runs – now lists Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation, assigning them a 58.3% probability of dropping down. West Ham’s relegation risk sits at 36.9%, while Nottingham Forest’s chance of going down is a modest 4.4%. Leeds United, sitting comfortably in 15th place with 39 points, have a relegation probability of just 0.4%. The expected‑points model from Opta forecasts Tottenham finishing on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39.
This leaves De Zerbi with a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his side up. The final stretch of the season will therefore be a high‑stakes drama, with both London clubs needing to extract maximum points from every remaining fixture if they hope to avoid the drop.