Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics with insight to illuminate the Premier League's most pressing narratives. This week’s focus centers on three key storylines: the prospect of Arsenal outshooting Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend. Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City are concentrating on accumulating points rather than obsessing over goal difference in their chase with Arsenal.
"It’s simply about winning matches," the manager told Sky Sports. Yet, with the two clubs currently level on points and separated only by the number of goals scored, the margin could prove decisive. Arsenal drew a sliver of optimism from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, a result that briefly lifted City back to the summit. While Arteta’s side must keep winning, a solitary victory may not suffice if the goal tally does not keep pace.
The Etihad encounter could have ended far worse for the Gunners, so the narrow defeat still offers a platform to build on. Guardiola reminded everyone that boosting goal difference is not purely an attacking exercise. "It’s about scoring and, just as importantly, not conceding," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question remains whether they can elevate their attacking output.
Arsenal can point out that they are only three goals behind City—a gap that is modest, especially when you consider their superior set‑piece record. The Gunners have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. However, that advantage has dwindled recently; after two corner strikes in the March win over Chelsea, they have managed just one set‑piece goal in the last four league games. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad, generating 1.32 expected goals (xG) from open play compared with City’s 0.98. Kai Havertz, deployed as the central striker, was pivotal. He won a one‑on‑one duel only to see his effort saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma, and later headed a cross from Leandro Trossard over the bar in stoppage‑time after having already equalised. Havertz’s presence as a focal point allowed Arsenal to hold up the ball, drive the team forward and pose a constant threat inside City’s box, even if the final score did not reflect his influence.
His five attempts marked the highest shot count by an opposition forward at the Etihad this season. This was only his second Premier League start up front, coinciding with the return of another player who has endured a season riddled with injuries. Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator in the match, and his partnership with Eberechi Eze elevated Arsenal’s technical level.
Looking ahead, Arteta will be keen to keep Havertz, Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka fit for the final five fixtures. Saka, according to the manager, is set to rejoin the lineup after a brief lay‑off, potentially forming a trio that has not started together since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024. Historical data underscores their collective impact: Arsenal’s expected goals from set‑pieces remain steady at 0.45 per game regardless of their presence, but open‑play xG jumps from 1.11 to 1.47 when all three feature. Nonetheless, simply fielding the trio is no guarantee of success.
Saka has scored only twice in his last 14 league outings, while Ødegaard has managed a single goal in his previous 21 appearances. The supporting cast must also step up.
Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 matches. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which came against bottom‑half opposition, suggesting he could be a decisive factor against lower‑ranked teams. Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference imperative. Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you go out you want to win, but once you’re winning you think, ‘let’s push for more goals,’ because we know the title race will be tight." This mindset could prove vital as the season draws to a close.
While Arsenal’s attacking outlook shows signs of life, Newcastle’s situation remains a headache for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game—their lowest since the 2021/22 campaign when they finished 11th.
Sitting 14th after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, their offensive rebuild has yet to bear fruit. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa have failed to score in a combined 24 league appearances, prompting Howe to consider giving Denmark U‑21 prospect William Osula a starting role.
Osula has shown promise, scoring in consecutive games, yet Newcastle’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, far short of the 20‑plus tallies posted by Alexander Isak in his previous two seasons at the club. The substantial investment in their front line has yet to translate into consistent goal output.
Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will host Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle clash in the Saturday Night Football fixture, both broadcasts commencing at 5 p.m. on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
On Monday, Manchester United travel to Brentford, with coverage beginning at 6.30 p.m. In last week’s column, Wright highlighted Arsenal’s technical deficiencies and argued for Havertz’s inclusion against City—a prediction that proved prescient.
As the season reaches its climax, Arsenal possess the tools to outscore their rivals, but they must maintain fitness, rediscover sharpness, and ensure their supporting players contribute the goals needed to tip the goal‑difference balance in their favour.