Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which club will accompany them to the Championship. With Leeds United and Nottingham Forest sitting eight and five points clear of the relegation zone respectively, the fight for survival is increasingly looking like a head‑to‑head showdown between the two London sides, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
The Hammers and the Spurs are separated by a mere two points, occupying 17th and 18th place, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of relegation looms larger for both. West Ham might rue their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday, a result that could have widened the gap if they had secured a win. Instead, the league table remains delicately balanced.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, echoing the optimism of his counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his side can claim victory in each of their remaining five fixtures after the recent stalemate with Brighton. During Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have shown under the Italian coach. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," Carragher said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than a single point." Despite that commendation, Tottenham’s winless run now stretches to 15 Premier League games – more than double the length of any other club’s streak. The next longest run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have failed to win in seven matches.
Breaking the Spurs’ drought will be a tough task, even against a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from scratch, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around.
The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their resurgence dates back to a dramatic January victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson netted a 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 comeback. Since that turning point, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from 12 fixtures, improving their points‑per‑game ratio from 0.7 to 1.6. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, sit on a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining opponents are averaged, Tottenham’s final five foes sit at an 11th‑place mean, slightly easier than West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
Home advantage also favours the Hammers: three of their last five matches will be played at the London Stadium, whereas Tottenham have only two home games left. The Spurs’ itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Tottenham have not won any of their last seven league encounters at Stamford Bridge, and they have lost their previous five meetings with Chelsea and the last four against Aston Villa.
West Ham’s road fixtures are not without difficulty either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host title‑challenger Arsenal. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest’s schedule is arguably the toughest of the three, based on opponent rankings.
Like Tottenham, they have three away games remaining, facing Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday trip to Sunderland. Nevertheless, with the survival threshold often cited around 38 points, Forest could be just one win away from safety, having moved to 36 points after Sunday’s crucial win over Burnley.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a club source remarked. Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the matchday squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury.
Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could feature before the campaign ends. Injuries, however, continue to plague Tottenham. Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in after the Sunderland defeat, and key attackers such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably the most vital creative outlet alongside Maddison, has not featured all season.
By contrast, West Ham enjoy an almost spotless injury list. Premier Injuries data shows only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański sidelined, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than De Zerbi, whose options are severely limited.
Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now lists Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% chance of dropping, compared with West Ham’s 36.9% probability.
Forest’s relegation risk sits at a modest 4.4%, while Leeds, now on 39 points, have an almost negligible 0.4% chance of going down. According to Opta’s expected points forecast, Tottenham are projected to finish the season on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s anticipated 39. De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his club up. In summary, with the season’s final stretch looming, the battle for Premier League survival has narrowed to a two‑way contest between West Ham and Tottenham.
Both clubs must capitalize on their remaining fixtures, manage injuries wisely, and find the consistency that has eluded them for months if they hope to avoid the drop.