Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics with sharp commentary to illuminate the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus centers on three key storylines: the possibility of Arsenal outshooting Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth watching this weekend. Pep Guardiola has repeatedly emphasized that Manchester City’s primary aim is to collect points rather than chase goal difference in their title duel with Arsenal.
"It’s simply about winning matches," he told Sky Sports. Yet the fact that the two clubs are separated only by the number of goals they have netted adds an extra layer of intrigue to the championship race.
Arsenal took heart from Manchester City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley, a result that temporarily lifted City to the top of the table. While the Gunners must still win their remaining fixtures, a solitary point may not be sufficient; a more decisive margin could be required to keep pace with City’s relentless consistency.
The Wednesday fixture could have been far more damaging for Arsenal, making the narrow defeat a sobering reminder of the fine margins at play. Guardiola also noted that improving goal difference is not merely an attacking pursuit. "It’s about scoring and, equally important, not conceding," he explained.
For Arsenal, the pressing question remains whether they can elevate their offensive output to match the demands of a title challenge. Arsenal can point out that they are only three goals shy of Manchester City’s tally – a gap that is hardly insurmountable, especially given their superior efficiency from set‑pieces. The Gunners have already recorded a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This advantage stems largely from a well‑drilled delivery system that has turned corners and free‑kicks into a reliable source of points.
However, the recent dip in set‑piece productivity – just one set‑piece goal in four league matches after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March – suggests that the supply line may need revitalising. Restoring that threat will be vital as the season enters its decisive phase.
Beyond dead‑ball situations, Arsenal’s most significant room for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. In the recent Etihad clash, the Gunners posted a higher expected‑goals (xG) total from open play than City, 1.32 to 0.98, indicating that they are capable of generating quality chances even against elite opposition.
Kai Havertz, deployed as the central striker, was instrumental in that performance. He missed a prime one‑on‑one opportunity saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later saw a well‑timed cross from Leandro Trossard sail over the bar in stoppage‑time after having already equalised. Nonetheless, Havertz’s role as a target man helped Arsenal’s build‑up: he held up the ball, linked midfield to attack, and consistently threatened the City box. His five shots represented the highest tally by any opposition forward at the Etihad this season, underscoring his impact despite the lack of a second goal.
This was only Havertz’s second Premier League start as a striker this season, coinciding with the return of another player who has endured a season marred by injuries. Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator on the pitch, providing more chances than any other player. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a substitution for him, elevated Arsenal’s technical quality in the final third.
Maintaining the fitness of these key figures, along with Bukayo Saka – who Arteta expects to rejoin the lineup after a brief injury lay‑off – will be crucial for the final five league games. Remarkably, Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League match together since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024, a period spanning nearly 18 months. When examining Arsenal’s performance with and without this trio, the data is telling. The Gunners average 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces regardless of their presence, indicating a steady dead‑ball threat.
In contrast, open‑play xG jumps to 1.47 when all three start, but falls to 1.11 when one or more are missing. This disparity highlights the trio’s collective importance in unlocking defences.
However, simply fielding Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka is not a guaranteed remedy. Saka’s scoring rate has dipped, with only two goals in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has managed a solitary goal in his previous 21 outings. Their supporting cast must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 matches. Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring chart with 12 league goals, many of which have come against lower‑table opposition.
His continued form could prove decisive in the remaining fixtures against teams fighting relegation. The desire to boost goal difference is palpable among the squad. Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning, you still think ‘let’s go out and score more goals’ because we know the title race will be tight." This mindset reflects an awareness that every additional goal could be the difference between lifting the trophy and finishing as runners‑up.
While Arsenal’s attacking prospects appear cautiously optimistic, Newcastle United presents a different set of challenges for manager Eddie Howe. The Magpies have seen their goals‑per‑game average dip to 1.41 – the lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th. Currently sitting 14th after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, Newcastle’s offensive rebuild has yet to bear fruit. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, acquired for a combined £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances between them.
Howe is now favouring Denmark U‑21 international William Osula as his primary striker, a move that has yielded back‑to‑back goals. Nevertheless, the club’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine league goals, underscoring the ongoing struggles in front of goal. Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could pose a threat to Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle will clash in Saturday Night Football, with live coverage beginning at 5 pm on Sky Sports. In summary, Arsenal possess the tools – a potent set‑piece arsenal, a burgeoning open‑play partnership, and a growing belief in scoring more than merely winning – to mount a serious challenge for the title. Their success will hinge on keeping key players fit, converting the chances they already create, and maintaining the relentless drive that has defined Manchester City’s campaign.
The upcoming fixtures will be a true test of whether Arsenal can translate statistical promise into the decisive goals needed to clinch the championship.