Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven opinion column where Nick Wright breaks down the Premier League stories that matter. This week’s agenda includes a look at Arsenal’s firepower against Manchester City, a quick assessment of Newcastle’s blunt‑force approach after the Isak era, and a player to keep an eye on over the weekend.
Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is simply to collect points, not to chase goal‑difference. "It’s all about winning games," he told Sky Sports. Yet, with the Gunners and the Citizens separated only by the number of goals they have scored, the margin could prove decisive as the season draws to a close.
Arsenal took heart from City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which briefly lifted the champions to the top of the table. While a win is still the bare minimum for Mikel Arteta’s side, the result also highlighted how fragile City’s advantage can be. A worse defeat for Arsenal could have widened the gap dramatically, so every point now feels priceless. Guardiola also reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not a one‑sided task.
"It’s about scoring and not conceding – both sides have to work on it," he explained. For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can boost their attacking output enough to match or exceed City’s tally.
Arteta can point out that the Gunners are only three goals shy of City’s total, a gap that looks modest when you consider Arsenal’s superior set‑piece record. They have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. However, Arsenal’s recent set‑piece form has dipped, with just one such goal in their last four league matches after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March.
The real area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad despite the 2‑1 loss. Their expected goals (xG) from open play stood at 1.32, comfortably above City’s 0.98.
Kai Havertz, playing as the makeshift No 9, was a key catalyst. He held up the ball, linked play, and created space for teammates, even though he only managed a single goal.
His five shots were the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season, underscoring his growing influence. Havertz’s performance came in only his second Premier League start up front, coinciding with the return of another injury‑prone Arsenal player.
Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, generating more chances than anyone else. The decision to start Ødegaard alongside Eberechi Eze, rather than replace him, lifted Arsenal’s technical level and added a new dimension to their attack. Looking ahead, Arteta will be eager to keep Havertz, Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka fit for the final five league fixtures. Saka, who is expected to return from a minor injury in the upcoming clash with Newcastle, has not started a Premier League game alongside Havertz and Ødegaard since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a gap of nearly 18 months.
Historical data shows that Arsenal’s set‑piece threat remains consistent regardless of who is on the field, averaging 0.45 expected goals per game from dead‑ball situations with or without the trio. The disparity emerges in open‑play xG: the Gunners average 1.47 when all three start, but that figure drops to 1.11 when one or more are missing. This underscores the importance of fielding a full‑strength attacking unit, though it is not a guaranteed cure‑all.
Both Havertz and Ødegaard have struggled to find the net recently – Havertz has scored only two league goals in his last 14 appearances, while Ødegaard has one in his last 21. Their supporting cast must also step up. Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three Premier League goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has failed to score in his last 13 outings.
Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition. His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could be crucial in the run‑in. Arsenal’s own players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle. Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you always think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals’, because we know it’ll be tight." That mindset, combined with the tactical adjustments outlined above, suggests the Gunners possess the tools to edge City if they can convert chances more efficiently.
While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s situation remains a concern for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game – their lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th. After a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, they sit 14th in the table.
Last summer’s £124 million offensive overhaul, featuring Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, has yet to pay dividends; the duo have failed to score in 24 league games combined. Howe is now leaning on young Danish striker William Osula as his preferred No 9, and Osula has begun to justify the trust with goals in back‑to‑back matches.
Nevertheless, Alexander Isak, who hit the 20‑goal mark in each of his previous two seasons, has not replicated that form, and the club’s top scorer is now midfielder Bruno Guimarães with nine goals. Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless stalemate with Fulham featured a flash of brilliance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle will meet in the Saturday Night Football slot, with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event. On Monday Night Football, Manchester United face Brentford, with kickoff at 8 p.m. following a 6.30 p.m.
pre‑show. The upcoming fixtures promise plenty of drama as the title race tightens.
In summary, Arsenal’s technical issues are beginning to resolve, especially with Havertz in the striker’s role, but consistency and injury management will be decisive. If the Gunners can sustain their set‑piece dominance, improve open‑play creativity, and keep their key attackers fit, they stand a realistic chance of outscoring Manchester City and clinching the Premier League crown.