Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley are poised to join them, but the real question now is which club will accompany them to the Championship. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the fight for survival appears to have narrowed to a direct duel between the two London sides, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both clubs are currently occupying the 17th and 18th spots, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches remaining in the campaign the pressure is mounting for each side.
West Ham might look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull clear; a win would have left Spurs further adrift. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, with everything to play for in the final stretch.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, emphasizing his desire to keep a hopeful tone. His counterpart, Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, echoed a similar sentiment, insisting his team can clinch five consecutive victories after the recent stalemate with Brighton. During Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have shown under De Zerbi’s guidance.
"There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," Carragher said. "They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than a point from that game." Despite that optimism, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrisome. After a loss to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless run to fifteen matches – more than twice the length of any other side’s drought.
The next longest streak belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a win. Breaking that fifteen‑game spell will be a formidable task, even against a Wolves side already consigned to relegation.
Carragher was blunt about the challenge: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December – it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing the game, and they could nick a point, of course, but I’ve seen other teams go to Wolves and struggle with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a difficult start, Nuno has already engineered a noticeable turnaround for the Hammers.
West Ham have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and their resurgence dates back to a dramatic January victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson struck in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 win. Since that moment, the Hammers have posted the sixth‑best record in the division, amassing five wins and three defeats from twelve games – an average of 1.6 points per match, up from a paltry 0.7 points per game earlier in the season. Forest, meanwhile, are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s schedule appears slightly more favorable on paper.
Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, venue distribution tilts the balance. West Ham enjoy three home games in their last five, whereas Spurs have only two.
The Hammers will host Arsenal, while the Hammers also travel to Brentford and Newcastle. Tottenham’s itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea – clubs that have historically given them a hard time. Spurs have not won any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, and they have suffered five consecutive defeats to Chelsea and four straight losses to Villa. Forest’s path is arguably the toughest of the three, based on opponent league positions.
Like Spurs, they have three away fixtures, with trips to Chelsea and Manchester United looming after a Friday visit to Sunderland. Yet, according to Opta’s data, the safety threshold this season could be around 38 points. Forest, now on 36 after their crucial win over Burnley, may need just a single victory to secure survival.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a source close to the club suggested. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the matchday squad after a lengthy knee injury layoff. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signaled that De Zerbi may have an extra creative option in the final weeks. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs lineup.
Key figures such as Cristian Romero, Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are all unavailable, and Kulusevski – arguably the most vital attacking asset alongside Maddison – has not featured all season. By contrast, West Ham enjoy near‑perfect fitness. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader pool of options than De Zerbi, who must navigate a depleted roster.
Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, places Tottenham as the clear relegation favourites. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out, versus West Ham’s 36.9 % chance. Forest’s odds sit at a modest 4.4 %, while Leeds, now on 39 points, are virtually safe with a 0.4 % relegation risk.
Projected point totals from the same Opta model suggest Spurs will finish on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s expected 39. De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to reverse the trend and keep his side afloat. As the season draws to a close, every match becomes a potential lifeline. Whether West Ham can capitalize on their recent surge, or Tottenham can rediscover the spark that once made them title contenders, remains to be seen.
One thing is certain: the battle for Premier League survival will be decided in the coming weeks, and the two London clubs will be at the heart of that drama.