Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which club will accompany them over the line. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the fight for survival seems to have narrowed to a two‑team showdown between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The two London clubs are currently occupying the 17th and 18th spots, separated by a mere two points, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of dropping down a division is palpable for both sides.
West Ham may look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull ahead; a win would have pushed Spurs further down the table. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, with each side needing a string of positive results to stay afloat. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep a hopeful tone. His counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, echoed a similar sentiment, insisting his side can still win their final five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton.
On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the improvement Spurs have shown under the Italian coach, noting that De Zerbi’s impact is evident in the way his team performed over the weekend and that they deserved more than a single point from that match. Despite that optimism, Spurs have not won a league game since December, extending their winless streak to fifteen matches – more than twice the length of any other club’s run. The longest unbeaten run among the rest of the division belongs to Burnley, who have avoided defeat in seven consecutive games.
Breaking the spell will be a tough task, even against a Wolves side that has already been consigned to the Championship. Carragher warned that Wolves are a tricky opponent, especially given the way they organise themselves defensively, and that a win for Tottenham is far from guaranteed.
While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a low base, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five Premier League fixtures, and their resurgence can be traced back to a dramatic January victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Callum Wilson scored a 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 comeback. Since that moment, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the league, earning five wins and three defeats from twelve games, which translates to an average of 1.6 points per match – a stark improvement from the 0.7 points per game they managed earlier in the season.
Forest, meanwhile, have enjoyed a five‑game unbeaten spell – their longest of the campaign – after a convincing 4‑1 triumph over Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have the softer schedule.
Their final five opponents hold an average league position of 11, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, the venue distribution favours the Hammers: three of their last five games are at home, whereas Tottenham will only host two.
The London club’s itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, both of which have historically proven difficult for Spurs. In fact, Tottenham have failed to win any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, and they have lost their most recent five meetings with Chelsea and their last four against Aston Villa. West Ham’s road fixtures are not without challenges either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also welcome title‑contending Arsenal at the London Stadium.
Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the Hammers on Saturday. Forest’s calendar looks the toughest of the three, with three away games that include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Yet, according to Opta’s data, the safety threshold this season could be around 38 points. Forest, now on 36 points after their crucial win over Burnley, may need just one more victory to reach that benchmark. "If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they're not far away now’," a club insider suggested.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that the manager could rely on him in the closing weeks. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs lineup.
Central defender Cristian Romero missed the Sunderland defeat, and key attackers Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are all unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably the most vital creative outlet alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this season.
In contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health. Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than De Zerbi, who must cope with a depleted squad. This disparity in squad depth is reflected in the latest Opta predicted table, which runs thousands of simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points.
The model assigns Tottenham a 58.3% probability of relegation, significantly higher than West Ham’s 36.9% risk. Nottingham Forest’s chance of dropping down is a modest 4.4%, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, are virtually safe with a relegation probability of just 0.4%. Opta’s expected points projection suggests Tottenham will finish the season on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s projected 39. De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task if he hopes to alter that trajectory.
The final stretch of the Premier League will test both managerial acumen and player resilience. For West Ham, maintaining the momentum built since that January comeback could be enough to secure survival. For Tottenham, turning around a historic winless run and finding a way to win at venues that have traditionally been hostile will be essential. Nottingham Forest, while still in the mix, will need to capitalize on their remaining fixtures to stay clear of the drop.
As the season draws to a close, every point will feel like a lifeline. Fans of both London clubs will be watching intently, hoping that the final five games will deliver the results needed to keep their teams in the top flight.
The battle for survival is now unmistakably a two‑way contest, and the outcome will hinge on who can muster the consistency, squad depth, and perhaps a little luck, to stay above the relegation line.