Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to follow, leaving the question of which other club will join them at the bottom. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the fight for survival is increasingly looking like a direct showdown between the two London sides, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The Hammers and the Spurs are currently separated by just two points, occupying the 17th and 18th places respectively, and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of relegation is mounting for both clubs.
West Ham’s recent goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday may be viewed as a missed chance to pull clear; a win would have pushed Tottenham further down the table. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, with both teams needing to seize every point in the remaining fixtures.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, emphasizing his belief that his side can still turn the tide. His optimism mirrors that of Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his players are capable of winning their final five games after a hard‑earned draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Tottenham have shown under De Zerbi. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," he said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than one point from that game." Despite the praise, Tottenham’s recent form remains troubling. After a defeat to Sunderland early in the season, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to 15 games – the longest such run in the division.
The next longest drought belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a win. Breaking this negative run will be a tall order, even when they face a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher.
"They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable," he added. "I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a standing start, Nuno has already managed to reverse West Ham’s fortunes. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their improvement stretches back further. The turning point arrived in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson netted a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 victory for West Ham.
Since that moment, the club has compiled the sixth‑best record in the league, winning five and losing three from 12 matches, raising their points‑per‑game ratio from 0.7 to 1.6. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, enjoy a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the season – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Spurs appear to have the more favourable schedule on paper. Their final five opponents average an 11th‑place finish, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
However, home‑away balance tilts slightly in West Ham’s favour, as they will host three of their last five games, whereas Tottenham will only have two home matches. The Hammers’ remaining itinerary includes a trip to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and a visit to sixth‑placed Chelsea – both formidable opponents.
Tottenham’s away challenges are equally daunting. They have never won at Stamford Bridge in their last seven league visits, have lost the last five encounters with Chelsea, and have failed to beat Aston Villa in their previous four meetings.
West Ham’s away fixtures pit them against Brentford and Newcastle, while they must also host title‑contending Arsenal. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side travel to the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest’s schedule is the toughest of the three, based on opponent league positions.
Like Tottenham, they have three away games left, facing Chelsea and Manchester United after a trip to Sunderland. Nevertheless, with the safety threshold often cited at 38 points, Forest may need only a single win to reach safety, having moved to 36 points after their crucial win over Burnley.
"If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, 'they're not far away now'," a club insider suggested. Spurs received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the match‑day squad for the first time this season after a long knee injury lay‑off. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could feature again before the season ends.
Injuries, however, continue to plague Tottenham. Key figures such as centre‑back Cristian Romero are ruled out for the run‑in, while Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most important attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this campaign. By contrast, West Ham enjoy a near‑clean bill of health.
According to Premier Injuries data, the only sidelined player is third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański, giving Nuno a far broader selection pool than De Zerbi. This relative fitness advantage could prove decisive in the final stretch. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now lists Tottenham as the clear favourites for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out of the Premier League, compared with West Ham’s 36.9 % chance.
Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk sits at a modest 4.4 %, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, are virtually safe with a 0.4 % probability of going down. The expected‑points projection from Opta suggests Tottenham will finish the season on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39. This leaves De Zerbi with a daunting task: to extract enough points from the remaining fixtures to overturn the statistical odds.
In summary, the battle for survival has narrowed to a two‑way contest between West Ham and Tottenham. Both clubs possess the quality to secure the necessary points, but injuries, fixture difficulty, and recent form will heavily influence the outcome. With only five games left, every match is effectively a must‑win, and the club that manages to convert its chances into points will stay up, while the other risks joining Wolves and Burnley in the Championship.