Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League, and Burnley appear destined to follow them into the Championship, but the real question now is which club will join them at the bottom. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points clear, the fight for survival is increasingly shaping up as a direct showdown between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. At the moment the Hammers sit in 17th place while the Spurs occupy 18th, a gap of just two points.
With only five matches left in the campaign, both sides are feeling the pressure of a possible drop to the second tier. West Ham’s recent goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday could be seen as a missed chance to pull away from the danger zone – a win would have created a comfortable buffer for the Hammers. Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced, and every point in the remaining fixtures will be crucial.
"It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, emphasizing his belief that his side can still turn things around. His optimism mirrors that of Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, who insisted his team are capable of winning their final five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. Both managers are trying to keep morale high as the season reaches its climax.
On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool and England defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Tottenham have made under De Zerbi. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact in terms of the performances," Carragher said.
"They played really well at the weekend and should have got more than one point out of it." His comments highlight the improvement Tottenham have shown, even if the results have not yet matched the quality on display. Despite the praise, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrisome. After a defeat to Sunderland early in the season, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to 15 games – more than twice as long as any other club’s run. The next‑longest unbeaten run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have avoided defeat in seven consecutive matches.
Breaking that 15‑game drought will be a massive challenge for De Zerbi, especially when they face a Wolves side already consigned to relegation on Saturday. Carragher warned that Wolves are a tricky opponent: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While Tottenham are trying to build momentum from a relatively low base, Nuno has already managed to reverse West Ham’s fortunes. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their resurgence began earlier in the season.
A pivotal moment came in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson scored a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 victory for West Ham. Since that win, West Ham have amassed the sixth‑best record in the league, earning five wins and three defeats from 12 matches – an average of 1.6 points per game, up sharply from the 0.7 points per game they were averaging before the turnaround. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have enjoyed a five‑game unbeaten spell – their longest run of the season – after a commanding 4‑1 triumph over Burnley.
Their recent form gives them a glimmer of hope, but the remaining fixtures for all three clubs are uneven in difficulty. Based on the average league positions of their upcoming opponents, Tottenham enjoy the most favorable schedule, with their final five adversaries averaging an 11th‑place finish. West Ham’s opponents average 9.4, while Forest’s opponents are the toughest at an average of 8.4.
Home advantage also plays a role. West Ham will play three of their last five games at the London Stadium, whereas Tottenham have only two home games left. Tottenham’s remaining itinerary includes challenging away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Historically, Spurs have struggled at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, failing to win any of their last seven league encounters there, and they have also lost their last five games against Chelsea overall and their last four against Aston Villa.
West Ham’s road fixtures are not simple either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and they must also host title‑chasing Arsenal. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visit the London Stadium on Saturday, adding another layer of difficulty for Nuno’s men. Forest’s schedule is the most demanding of the three, with three away games that include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Nevertheless, Opta’s data suggests that the threshold for safety could be around 38 points. Forest, now on 36 points after their crucial win over Burnley, may need just one more victory to reach that benchmark. As one analyst noted, "If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now.’" Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury.
Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signals that De Zerbi may have an additional creative option as the run‑in continues. Injuries, however, remain a major concern for the Spurs.
Key players such as centre‑back Cristian Romero are ruled out for the final stretch, and attacking talents Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and defender Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most important attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this season. In contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health.
According to Premier Injuries, the only injured player in Nuno’s squad is third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański. This gives the Hammers considerably more flexibility in selection compared with De Zerbi, who must cope with a long list of absences. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations based on hundreds of thousands of data points, now places Tottenham as the clear favourites for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out of the Premier League, compared with a 36.9 % chance for West Ham.
Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk is a modest 4.4 %, while Leeds United, now on 39 points, have a virtually negligible 0.4 % chance of going down. When it comes to expected points, Opta forecasts Tottenham finishing on 37 points, two points behind West Ham’s projected total of 39. This suggests that De Zerbi faces a steep uphill battle to avoid the drop, while Nuno’s side may have just enough quality and momentum to stay up.
In summary, the final weeks of the Premier League season have turned into a tense, two‑way duel between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both clubs are separated by a razor‑thin margin, and every fixture will be watched closely by fans and pundits alike. Injuries, form, and the difficulty of the remaining schedule will all play pivotal roles in determining which of the two London clubs secures survival and which one joins Wolves and Burnley in the Championship. The drama is set to continue until the very last whistle.