Welcome to The Debrief, Sky Sports' weekly column where Adam Bate blends statistics with personal insight to dissect the most compelling narratives emerging from the latest Premier League fixtures. This edition focuses on the recent struggles of Chelsea under manager Liam Rosenior and examines the broader implications for the club and its rivals. Earlier this month, Rosenior highlighted that, despite the constant chatter surrounding his tenure at Chelsea, the team had managed to sit in fourth place when he first took charge.
However, that early optimism has faded dramatically; the Blues have slipped to ninth in the table, a clear indication that the early promise has not been sustained. Chelsea's most recent loss came at the hands of Manchester United, marking their fourth consecutive defeat and the third of those setbacks occurring on home soil. The club’s recent history includes a dismal run of three straight Premier League losses at Stamford Bridge, a streak that even saw them beaten by a side like Oldham when former striker Tony Cascarino was on the pitch for Chelsea. These results point to a turbulent period for the club.
While Rosenior remains vociferously defensive of his record, his confidence appears to be waning as the situation threatens to unravel. Fans have grown accustomed to his robust justifications, and he has been particularly insistent that the defeat to United was undeserved. "They had one chance on our goal when we were reduced to ten men after an injury, they scored, and then we kept sending wave after wave of attacks, crossing into the box, creating moments that we simply failed to convert. I think we hit the woodwork four or five times," Rosenior said after the match.
"I will never lie; I cannot comment on things I haven’t seen. I saw a team that dominated from the first minute to the last, but we need to manage those moments better. That is what is costing us points right now." Rosenior’s assessment contains a kernel of truth, even though Opta data shows that only three of Chelsea’s attempts actually struck the frame of the goal.
The club’s finishing has been abysmal. Since mid‑March, Chelsea is the only side in the Premier League that has failed to find the net despite registering the highest number of shots on target.
This statistic is striking, yet it must be contextualised. Manchester United enjoyed the clearer opening in the game, and Chelsea’s numerous chances have largely been of low quality. Over the past ten matches, only Wolves have posted a lower expected‑goals (xG) per shot than Chelsea, underscoring a systemic issue with the quality of their opportunities.
Penetrating the penalty area has become a chronic problem; the chances they create are often not genuine scoring opportunities, which explains the repeated pattern of dominance without reward. A further concern is the personnel involved.
It is unlikely to be a coincidence that United’s Matheus Cunha, a Brazilian forward who has consistently outperformed his xG in the Premier League, was the one to deliver the decisive finish. Every attacker Chelsea fielded on Saturday has, over the course of their Premier League careers, underperformed their expected‑goals metrics.
This suggests that the club’s current offensive output may be as much a product of player form as of tactical approach. Football often hinges on fine margins, and it is reasonable to expect Chelsea to break their drought soon. However, on a weekend when proven goal‑scorers such as Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah were the decisive factors for their respective teams, Chelsea’s apparent misfortune in front of goal seems almost baked into their recent model of play.
In a separate analysis, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher turned his attention to Florian Wirtz ahead of the Merseyside derby. Carragher praised Wirtz’s statistical output – four goals and three assists – describing it as "neat and tidy" but noted that the German’s influence on the pitch did not translate into a clear dominance for Liverpool. While Virgil van Dijk’s late heroics secured a win for Liverpool, Wirtz’s contributions were ultimately insufficient to change the outcome.
Post‑match data highlighted why Liverpool’s £116 million acquisition from Bayer Leverkusen remains a difficult player to evaluate. Wirtz currently ranks second in the Premier League for open‑play chances created, trailing only Bruno Fernandes.
Yet a closer look reveals that many of those chances were either half‑chances or poorly executed. For example, a clever reverse pass to Cody Gakpo resulted in no shot, and a through ball to Alexander Isak produced a simple finish that was easily saved. The remaining two opportunities were merely speculative attempts. The eye test painted a different picture.
Wirtz struggled to retain possession in a high‑tempo match, often being out‑muscled and unable to impose his game as many Liverpool supporters had hoped. He managed just one successful dribble and failed to register a single shot on target. When in rhythm, Wirtz can be a delight to watch, gliding across the field with effortless movement.
His work rate is unquestionable; he ranks fourth in the league for total runs this season, despite playing fewer minutes than the three players ahead of him. He consistently seeks space, though he does not always find it. Nevertheless, he has yet to display the daring confidence expected of a marquee signing.
The swagger and risk‑taking that characterised Rayan Cherki’s rise at Manchester City have not manifested in Wirtz’s performances for Liverpool. While he was a leader at Leverkusen, he has not yet assumed a similar role at Anfield.
His obvious talent and long‑term contract provide Liverpool with a degree of patience, but there are limits. "He is in a new league, under a new manager, in a new system," Carragher observed.
"But we are ten months in now. We need to see a lot more." Turning to the north, Newcastle United continue to exhibit the high‑intensity style that has defined Eddie Howe’s tenure.
The club currently sits second in the league for sprints and has been among the top five in that metric throughout all five of Howe’s seasons. However, this relentless approach is now creating vulnerabilities. Newcastle’s success has, paradoxically, become part of their problem. When the press is slightly delayed or the defensive line fails to push up, gaps appear for opponents to exploit.
This was evident in their 2‑1 loss to Bournemouth, a match in which Newcastle never truly controlled the proceedings. Howe defended his tactics, claiming the margins were fine, yet Andoni Iraola’s side generated superior chances, reflected in an expected‑goals total of 2.99 – the highest Newcastle have conceded this season and just above the tally from the previous week’s clash with Crystal Palace. Since the end of January, Newcastle’s xG against has been worse than every other Premier League side except bottom‑placed Wolves. The club now finds itself sandwiched between three relegation‑threatened teams, confirming that their defence has become one of the league’s most porous.
The home record is particularly alarming. Newcastle have lost five of their last six league games at St James’ Park – a number that matches the total defeats they suffered across the entire previous season and the combined total of the two seasons before that. Their once‑formidable fortress has been breached, turning away what should be a daunting venue for visiting teams. A vulnerable Newcastle inevitably reflects on Eddie Howe’s position.
Even the often‑criticised Steve Bruce never saw his side sink as low as Newcastle currently sit in the table. Consequently, Howe’s selection choices and recruitment strategy are under intense scrutiny. Players such as Yoane Wissa have contributed little, Anthony Elanga has once again underperformed, and Nick Woltemade has emerged as a problem that needs solving.
Howe recognises that answers must be found up front, but the immediate priority remains fixing the leaky defence that is currently costing the club dearly. In summary, both Chelsea and Newcastle are navigating turbulent waters. Chelsea’s inability to convert a high volume of shots into goals, coupled with a squad that is underperforming its expected metrics, suggests a deeper tactical or personnel issue that must be addressed.
Newcastle’s high‑press style, while exciting, has exposed defensive frailties that opponents are beginning to exploit. For both managers, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether these clubs can arrest their declines and re‑establish themselves as genuine contenders in the Premier League.