Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which other club will be consigned to the same fate. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the battle for survival is shaping up to be a direct showdown between the two London sides, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both clubs are currently locked together in the lower reaches of the table, West Ham occupying 17th place and Spurs 18th, separated by a mere two points.
With only five matches left in the campaign, the danger of slipping down to the Championship is mounting for each side, and every point becomes crucial. Could West Ham look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull ahead?
A win would have left Tottenham further adrift, yet the stalemate left the situation delicately balanced, with both teams still within touching distance of each other. "It will be a fight right to the final whistle," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep the mood optimistic. His counterpart at Tottenham, Roberto De Zerbi, echoed a similar sentiment, insisting his side can secure victories in their remaining five fixtures after the recent draw with Brighton.
On Monday Night Football, former player and pundit Jamie Carragher praised the progress Spurs have shown under De Zerbi’s guidance. \"There is no doubt the Italian has made a difference in the way the team performs,\" Carragher said. \"They played very well over the weekend and deserved more than a single point.\" Despite the positive remarks, Tottenham’s recent form remains worrying. After a loss to Sunderland, the draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless streak to fifteen games – more than double the length of any other club’s run.
The next‑longest unbeaten stretch belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have avoided defeat for seven matches. Breaking the winless spell will be a daunting task, even when facing already‑relegated Wolves on Saturday, according to Carragher, who noted the difficulty of playing at the Molineux Stadium under the current tactical setup. While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a low base, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around.
The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league games, and their improvement stretches back further. A pivotal moment arrived in January at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson scored a dramatic 93rd‑minute winner to secure a 2‑1 victory for West Ham. Since that win, the club has amassed the sixth‑best record in the division, earning five wins and three defeats from twelve matches – an average of 1.6 points per game, up from just 0.7 points per game earlier in the season. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have enjoyed a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley.
When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s opponents average an 11th‑place finish, slightly easier than West Ham’s average opponent rank of 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4. However, the distribution of home and away games tilts in West Ham’s favour: three of their final five fixtures are at the London Stadium, whereas Tottenham only have two home games left. The Spurs’ schedule includes challenging trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea, both of which have historically proved difficult for them. Tottenham have not won any of their last seven Premier League encounters at Stamford Bridge, have lost five consecutive matches to Chelsea, and have dropped points in their last four meetings with Aston Villa.
West Ham’s road fixtures are not without difficulty either. They travel to Brentford and Newcastle, and they also host Arsenal, who are still chasing a top‑four finish. Everton’s manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday.
Forest’s remaining programme appears the toughest when measured by opponent league positions. Like Tottenham, they have three away games, including trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday clash with Sunderland.
Nevertheless, Opta’s data suggests the safety threshold for survival could be around 38 points. Forest have already moved to 36 points after a crucial win over Burnley, meaning a single victory against Sunderland would lift them to 39 points and put them just outside the danger zone. Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although the 29‑year‑old remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that he could feature in the closing stages of the campaign.
Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs. Cristian Romero was ruled out for the remainder of the season after the Sunderland defeat, and other key players such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable. Kulusevski, arguably one of Spurs’ most potent attacking options alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this season. In contrast, West Ham enjoy a relatively clean bill of health.
Premier Injuries lists only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as unavailable, giving Nuno a much broader selection of players than De Zerbi, who must cope with a long list of absentees. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations and incorporates hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3 % probability of dropping out of the Premier League, compared with West Ham’s 36.9 % chance.
Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk is a modest 4.4 % after they widened the gap over Spurs in 18th place, while Leeds United, sitting comfortably in 15th, face a negligible 0.4 % chance of going down after reaching 39 points. When Opta’s expected‑points calculation is applied, Tottenham are projected to finish the season on 37 points, two points fewer than West Ham’s projected total of 39. This puts De Zerbi under considerable pressure to deliver a different outcome in the final stretch. In summary, the Premier League’s relegation battle has narrowed to a two‑way contest between West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
Both clubs are separated by only two points, both have a handful of games left to secure the points they need, and both are grappling with injury issues – though West Ham’s squad is considerably healthier. The upcoming fixtures will be decisive: Spurs must navigate a difficult away run that includes Villa and Chelsea, while West Ham will look to capitalise on their home advantage and the comparatively softer opposition.
Nottingham Forest remain in the mix, but their odds of survival have improved after a vital win. As the season draws to its climax, every goal, every save, and every tactical decision will determine which of the London clubs will retain their Premier League status and which will join Wolves and Burnley in the drop.