Liam Rosenior has often highlighted that Chelsea were sitting fourth in the Premier League when he first took charge, a point he reiterated before the side’s clash with Manchester City on Sunday. In hindsight, however, it may have been wiser for him not to keep an eye on that early‑season snapshot. The 3‑0 defeat at Stamford Bridge not only erased that early optimism but also saw the Blues tumble five places down the table, landing in ninth position after just eleven matches under Rosenior’s stewardship.
This loss marked the third consecutive league defeat without finding the net, intensifying the scrutiny on Rosenior ahead of the upcoming showdown with Manchester United. When you add the humiliating 8‑2 aggregate drubbing at the hands of Paris Saint‑Germain in the Champions League round of 16, the picture becomes stark: five defeats in six competitive outings.
With the goal of a top‑five finish now looking increasingly precarious, many supporters are asking whether Chelsea are actually moving backwards under their new manager. Rosenior’s tenure began on a high‑note. He guided the team to victories in his first four Premier League fixtures, beating Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Those early wins suggested a fresh start after the turbulence that followed Enzo Maresca’s departure. Yet the momentum quickly stalled – only one win has been recorded in the subsequent seven league games.
An unbeaten run that had seemed within reach was shattered by Arsenal on March 1, and the Gunners also outplayed Chelsea in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi‑final. The gulf between Chelsea and the league’s elite was further exposed by the heavy losses to PSG and Manchester City.
"Rosenior started well and got some good results, but when Chelsea play the big boys, they get beaten up," observed Sky Sports analyst Paul Merson. While Rosenior can point to impressive away victories against Napoli in the Europa League and Aston Villa in the league as evidence of his tactical acumen, the recent 3‑0 defeat to City has left many fans feeling uneasy ahead of the Manchester United match. Rosenior was appointed to steady the ship after a chaotic finish to Maresca’s era, but his record after three months mirrors many of the same issues that plagued his predecessor. Under Rosenior, Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game – a modest rise from the 1.48 points per game they managed earlier in the season.
Although this represents a slight improvement, it remains the third‑lowest points‑per‑game ratio for a Chelsea manager since 2004 and falls short of the benchmark needed for a Champions League berth. If the team continues at the current clip, they are projected to finish the campaign with roughly 57 points, a tally only five points above Liverpool’s present total in fifth place. The trajectory of recent form suggests that even that modest target may be out of reach unless Rosenior can engineer a dramatic turnaround in the weeks to come.
In his post‑match press conference after the City loss, Rosenior reminded the media that even the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp required a full season to "sort things out" at Manchester City and Liverpool respectively. The point was well‑taken, but it also underscored the pressure on a manager who is only 11 Premier League games into his reign, having taken over mid‑season under challenging circumstances. It is important to note that Rosenior is not responsible for the transfer policy that has left the squad thin on experience and leadership.
Moreover, the club’s demanding schedule – highlighted by a deep run to the Club World Cup final last summer – has taken a toll on player fitness and cohesion. Nevertheless, supporters are justified in expecting more from a team that has historically been synonymous with resilience and consistency. Chelsea’s mental fragility is not a new phenomenon. Under Maresca, the side squandered 15 points from winning positions during the first half of the campaign.
Under Rosenior, those lapses have become even more pronounced. The Blues have repeatedly surrendered two‑goal leads, most notably against Leeds United and Burnley in February, and then again in the recent defeats to PSG, Everton and Manchester City.
Such collapses point to an underlying issue with concentration and game management. Discipline has also emerged as a glaring problem.
Red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive fixtures against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly, and since Rosenior’s debut in January, Chelsea have accumulated more bookings than any other Premier League side. While Rosenior cannot be held accountable for the internal dispute that led to Enzo Fernández’s two‑match suspension, the incident adds to a growing list of off‑field distractions that have plagued the squad. With only six league matches remaining and a four‑point gap to Liverpool, Chelsea’s chances of securing a coveted Champions League spot appear dim.
Missing out would not only be a financial setback but could also jeopardise Rosenior’s position. The recent second‑half collapse against Manchester City may force the club to reassess its standing in the table and consider whether a change in direction is required. Despite the bleak headline numbers, there are encouraging signs hidden in the analytics. Expected goals (xG) data indicates that Chelsea’s performances under Rosenior have actually improved compared with the earlier part of the season.
In the three months since his appointment, the team’s net xG – the difference between goals created and goals conceded – ranks second in the league, trailing only Arsenal. This metric is widely regarded as a reliable predictor of future success, suggesting that the Blues are generating quality chances while tightening their defence, even if the results have not yet reflected this progress. A rolling average chart of Chelsea’s xG and xGA further illustrates Rosenior’s positive influence, showing a trend of better chance creation and fewer chances allowed. However, the numbers have started to drift downward since the 1‑0 loss to Newcastle, indicating that the recent dip in form is beginning to affect the underlying statistics as well.
Ultimately, results remain the decisive factor, especially with so much at stake as the season draws to a close. After three straight league defeats without scoring and a humiliating Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, Rosenior faces a formidable challenge: he must convince a skeptical fanbase that he can guide Chelsea back to the heights they expect. Whether he can harness the promising underlying metrics and translate them into tangible victories will determine if Chelsea are truly regressing or simply experiencing a temporary setback under his leadership.