Liam Rosenior was quick to remind everyone that, when he first took charge, Chelsea were sitting fourth in the Premier League. He made that point ahead of their clash with Manchester City on Sunday, perhaps hoping to bolster confidence. In hindsight, he may wish he hadn’t highlighted those standings so publicly.
The 3‑0 defeat at Stamford Bridge was a harsh reminder of how quickly fortunes can change. The loss knocked the Blues down five places, leaving them ninth after just eleven league games under Rosenior. It also marked a third consecutive Premier League loss without finding the net, adding extra pressure before the upcoming showdown with Manchester United. When you factor in the crushing 8‑2 aggregate drubbing by Paris Saint‑Germain in the Champions League round of 16, the picture becomes even bleaker: five defeats in six matches across all competitions.
With a top‑five finish now looking increasingly out of reach, one must ask whether Chelsea are actually regressing under Rosenior’s guidance. Rosenior’s spell began on a high note. He guided the team to victories in his first four league fixtures – against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers – a run that suggested a promising turnaround.
Since then, however, the tally has slipped to just one win in seven outings. The unbeaten run was snapped by Arsenal on 1 March, and the Gunners also bested Chelsea in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi‑final. The gap between Chelsea and the league’s elite seemed to widen further after heavy defeats to PSG and Manchester City. "Rosenior started well and got some good results, but when Chelsea play the big boys, they get beaten up," observed Sky Sports analyst Paul Merson, encapsulating the prevailing sentiment.
Supporters can point to a few bright spots. Rosenior’s side secured impressive away victories over Napoli in the Champions League and Aston Villa in the league, which he can cite as evidence of his tactical acumen. Yet the recent loss to Manchester City has left many fans uneasy ahead of the crucial match against Michael Carrick’s Manchester United.
Rosenior was appointed to steady the ship after Enzo Maresca’s tumultuous exit, a task made more difficult by the fact that his early record mirrors Maresca’s: both have struggled to maintain consistency in a challenging environment. So far, Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per league game under Rosenior, a modest rise from the 1.48 points per game they earned earlier in the season. While this indicates a slight improvement, it still ranks as the third‑lowest points‑per‑game average for a Chelsea manager since 2004.
That figure is far from the benchmark required for a Champions League berth. If the Blues continue at the current rate, they are projected to finish the campaign with roughly 57 points – only five more than Liverpool’s current total in fifth place. The trajectory of their form suggests that even this modest target may be out of reach unless Rosenior can spark a dramatic turnaround in the weeks ahead.
In the aftermath of the City defeat, Rosenior reminded the press that even the most successful managers, such as Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp, needed a season to "sort things out" at Manchester City and Liverpool. The 41‑year‑old is only eleven Premier League games into his tenure, having taken over midway through a difficult season. It is important to note that Rosenior is not responsible for the summer recruitment that left the squad thin on experience and leadership.
He also inherits the physical toll of a congested calendar, including a deep run in the Club World Cup last summer. Nevertheless, fans have a right to expect better outcomes. Chelsea’s mental fragility is not a new phenomenon.
Under Maresca, the team squandered 15 points from winning positions in the first half of the campaign. Under Rosenior, the issue has become more pronounced, with the Blues surrendering two‑goal leads against Leeds United and Burnley in February, and then a one‑goal lead against Manchester City on Sunday – a pattern echoing earlier collapses against PSG and Everton. Discipline has also been a persistent problem. Red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in successive games against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly, and since Rosenior’s debut in January, Chelsea have accumulated more bookings than any other Premier League side.
While the coach cannot be blamed for every off‑field incident – such as the internal two‑match suspension of Enzo Fernández following a comment – the frequency of disciplinary lapses reflects a broader cultural issue that Rosenior has yet to resolve. With only six league fixtures remaining and a four‑point gap to Liverpool, Chelsea’s prospects for securing a Champions League place appear dim. Missing out would be a serious blow to Rosenior’s standing at the club. Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs hidden in the underlying statistics.
Expected‑goals (xG) data shows that Chelsea’s performances under Rosenior have actually improved compared with the early part of the season. In the three months since his appointment, the Blues have posted the second‑highest net xG in the league, trailing only Arsenal. This metric, which gauges the quality of chances created versus those conceded, is often a reliable predictor of future results.
The rolling average of Chelsea’s xG and expected goals against (xGA) illustrates a positive shift in attacking efficiency, even if the raw results have not yet caught up. However, the trend has slipped since the 1‑0 loss to Newcastle, indicating that consistency remains an issue.
In the end, results are what matter most, especially with so much at stake in the final stretch of the season. After three straight league defeats without scoring and a humiliating Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, Rosenior faces a steep climb to convince the fanbase that he is the right man to lead Chelsea forward.
The upcoming fixtures – particularly the high‑profile clash with Manchester United – will be a litmus test for his ability to reverse the slide and restore belief in a club that is accustomed to competing at the very top of English football.