Liam Rosenior was quick to remind everyone that, when he first took charge, Chelsea were sitting fourth in the Premier League. He made that point in the build‑up to their clash with Manchester City on Sunday.
In hindsight, he might have been better off leaving those standings in the past. After a three‑goal defeat at Stamford Bridge, the Blues slipped five places, dropping to ninth after eleven games under Rosenior. That loss marked their third consecutive Premier League defeat without finding the net, intensifying the pressure ahead of Saturday’s showdown with Manchester United. When you add the humiliating 8‑2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint‑Germain in the Champions League round of 16, the picture becomes even bleaker: five defeats in six matches across all competitions.
With a top‑five finish now looking like an uphill battle, the question on many supporters’ minds is whether Chelsea are actually moving backwards under Rosenior’s stewardship. His spell began on a high note. The new manager guided the team to victories in his first four league games – wins over Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Since that promising start, however, Chelsea have managed just one win in their next seven outings.
The unbeaten run was finally broken by Arsenal on March 1, a defeat that came on the heels of two Carabao Cup semi‑final losses to the same opponents. The gulf between Chelsea and the league’s elite was further highlighted by the heavy defeats to PSG and Manchester City. "Rosenior started well and secured some decent results, but when Chelsea face the big clubs they get out‑classed," observed Sky Sports analyst Paul Merson.
Rosenior can point to impressive away victories against Napoli in the Champions League and Aston Villa in the league as evidence of his tactical acumen. Yet, after the loss to City, it is understandable why many fans feel pessimistic about the upcoming encounter with Michael Carrick’s Manchester United. He was appointed to steady the ship after a turbulent end to Enzo Maresca’s tenure, which itself followed an abrupt hiring from Strasbourg. Unfortunately, Rosenior’s record after three months mirrors many of the shortcomings that plagued his predecessor.
Statistically, Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per league game under Rosenior – a modest rise from the 1.48 points per game they earned earlier in the season. While this suggests a slight improvement, it still ranks as the third‑lowest points‑per‑game average for a Chelsea manager since 2004. More importantly, it falls far short of the benchmark needed to guarantee a Champions League berth.
If the team continues at the current pace for the remainder of the campaign, they would finish with roughly 57 points – only five points above Liverpool’s present total in fifth place. The trajectory of recent form implies that even that modest target may be out of reach unless Rosenior can engineer a dramatic turnaround in the weeks ahead.
In the press conference following Sunday’s defeat, Rosenior reminded the media that even giants like Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp required a full season to "sort things out" at Manchester City and Liverpool. The 41‑year‑old is now just eleven Premier League matches into his tenure, having taken over mid‑season under challenging circumstances. He cannot be blamed for the recruitment strategy that left the squad thin on experience and leadership, nor for the fatigue caused by an exhaustive schedule that included a deep run in the Club World Cup last summer.
Nevertheless, supporters have a legitimate expectation of better results. Chelsea’s mental fragility is not a new phenomenon. Under Maresca, the club surrendered 15 points from winning positions in the first half of the season. Under Rosenior, the issue has become even more pronounced, with the team relinquishing two‑goal and one‑goal leads against Leeds United and Burnley in February, followed by similar collapses against PSG and Everton.
Discipline on the pitch has also deteriorated. Red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive fixtures against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly, and since Rosenior’s debut in January, Chelsea have collected more bookings than any other Premier League side.
While Rosenior was not responsible for the internal two‑game suspension handed to Enzo Fernández after a controversial comment, the incident adds to a growing list of disciplinary lapses within the squad. With Chelsea now four points adrift of Liverpool and only six league games remaining, the outlook for securing a coveted Champions League spot looks dim. Missing out could have serious repercussions for Rosenior’s future at the club.
Nevertheless, a deeper look at the underlying statistics offers a sliver of optimism. Expected‑goals (xG) data shows that Chelsea’s performances under Rosenior have actually improved compared with the earlier part of the season. In the three months since his appointment, the Blues have posted the second‑highest net xG in the league, trailing only Arsenal. Net xG – the difference between goals created and goals conceded – is widely regarded as a reliable predictor of future success.
Chelsea’s figures indicate they are generating far more quality chances than they are allowing, even ranking above Manchester City and Liverpool in this metric. This suggests that the team’s underlying play is stronger than the raw results would imply.
A rolling average chart of Chelsea’s xG and expected goals against (xGA) underscores Rosenior’s positive impact, although the trend has dipped since the 1‑0 loss to Newcastle United. Still, the data points to a team that is building better chances and tightening its defensive shape.
Of course, in football, results are king, especially when a club’s future European participation hangs in the balance. After three straight league defeats without scoring, and a crushing Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, Rosenior faces a formidable task: convincing a skeptical fanbase that he can guide Chelsea back to the heights they expect.
The coming weeks will be decisive. A strong showing against Manchester United could reignite belief, while continued setbacks may accelerate calls for change.
Ultimately, the verdict on whether Chelsea are regressing or simply rebuilding under Rosenior will depend on whether the underlying improvements translate into tangible points on the board.