Liam Rosenior has often highlighted that Chelsea sat in fourth place on the Premier League ladder when he first took charge, a point he referenced ahead of the Sunday clash with Manchester City. In hindsight, it may have been wiser for him to ignore that early snapshot.
After suffering a three‑goal defeat at Stamford Bridge, the Blues slipped five spots to ninth place, marking their 11th match under Rosenior. The loss represents their third consecutive Premier League defeat without finding the net, intensifying the scrutiny they face as they prepare for the upcoming fixture against Manchester United.
When the aggregate 8‑2 drubbing by Paris Saint‑Germain in the Champions League round of 16 is added to the equation, the statistics become stark: five defeats in six matches across all competitions. With a top‑five finish now looking increasingly elusive, the question looms – is Chelsea regressing under Rosenior? Rosenior’s spell began on a positive note.
He guided the team to victories in his first four league outings, beating Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Since that promising start, however, Chelsea have managed only a single win in their next seven league games.
Their unbeaten run was shattered by Arsenal on March 1, a defeat that was compounded by losing both legs of the Carabao Cup semi‑final to the same opponents. The gulf between Chelsea and the league’s elite was further exposed by heavy losses to PSG and Manchester City. "Rosenior started well and secured some good results, but when Chelsea face the big clubs they get beaten up," observed Sky Sports analyst Paul Merson.
While Rosenior can point to impressive away victories over Napoli and Aston Villa as evidence of his tactical acumen, the recent loss to Manchester City has left many supporters doubtful ahead of the encounter with Michael Carrick’s Manchester United. Rosenior was appointed to steady the ship after a turbulent end to Enzo Maresca’s tenure, which saw the former manager dismissed following a string of poor results. Yet, three months into the job, Rosenior’s record mirrors that of his predecessor in many respects.
Chelsea have accumulated an average of 1.54 points per league game under his guidance – a modest rise from the 1.48 points per game they earned earlier in the season. While this suggests a slight improvement, it still ranks as the third‑lowest points‑per‑game average for a Chelsea manager since 2004 and falls well short of the tally needed for a Champions League berth. If the team continues at the current pace, they are projected to finish the campaign with roughly 57 points, a figure only marginally above Liverpool’s present total in fifth place. The trajectory of recent form raises concerns that even that modest target may be out of reach unless Rosenior can engineer a dramatic turnaround in the weeks ahead.
In his post‑match press conference after the City defeat, he reminded critics that even elite managers like Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp required a full season to "sort things out" at Manchester City and Liverpool respectively. At just 41 years old and only 11 Premier League matches into his tenure, Rosenior inherited a squad assembled without his input, one that lacks seasoned leadership and suffers from fatigue after a grueling schedule that included a deep run in the Club World Cup last summer. Nevertheless, fans have a legitimate expectation for better performances.
Chelsea’s mental fragility is not a new phenomenon. Under Maresca, the club squandered 15 points from winning positions in the first half of the campaign. Under Rosenior, the issue has become more pronounced, with the team surrendering two‑goal leads against Leeds United and Burnley in February, and then allowing similar collapses against PSG and Everton.
Discipline has also been a persistent problem; red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in successive games against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly, and since Rosenior’s debut in January, Chelsea have amassed more bookings than any other Premier League side. While Rosenior is not to blame for the internal comments that resulted in Enzo Fernández’s two‑match suspension, the incident underscores a broader pattern of player indiscipline.
With Chelsea now four points adrift of Liverpool and only six league fixtures remaining, the prospect of securing a Champions League spot appears bleak. Missing out on that coveted qualification could jeopardise Rosenior’s position. Despite the recent second‑half collapse to Manchester City, there are encouraging signs in the underlying statistics. Expected goals (xG) data indicates that Chelsea’s performances under Rosenior have actually improved compared with earlier in the season.
In fact, the net xG accumulated over the three months since his appointment is the second‑best in the league, trailing only Arsenal. This metric, which measures the quality of chances created versus those conceded, is often viewed as a reliable predictor of future results. By this measure, Chelsea have generated far superior opportunities than they have allowed opponents, even surpassing Manchester City and Liverpool in this regard.
A rolling average chart of Chelsea’s xG and expected goals against (xGA) illustrates Rosenior’s positive influence, although the trend has dipped following the 1‑0 defeat to Newcastle United. Ultimately, results remain the decisive factor, especially with the season’s climax approaching. After enduring three straight league losses without scoring and a humiliating Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, Rosenior faces the daunting task of convincing a skeptical fanbase that he is the right person to guide the club forward. The coming weeks will be crucial.
If Rosenior can harness the latent potential suggested by the advanced metrics, tighten defensive lapses, and restore confidence within the squad, Chelsea may yet salvage a respectable finish. Otherwise, the narrative of regression under his stewardship could solidify, prompting the club’s hierarchy to reassess the direction of the project.