Liam Rosenior has often reminded supporters that Chelsea were sitting in fourth place when he first took charge, a claim he made ahead of the weekend clash with Manchester City. In hindsight, that optimism may have been premature. A 3-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge against City saw the Blues tumble five spots to ninth place, marking their eleventh league outing under Rosenior. The loss was the third consecutive Premier League defeat without finding the net and has amplified the scrutiny on the team as they prepare for the upcoming encounter with Manchester United.
When the aggregate score of 8-2 against Paris Saint‑Germain in the Champions League round of 16 is added to the domestic tally, Chelsea have now suffered five defeats in six matches across all competitions. The club’s ambition of securing a top‑five finish appears increasingly out of reach, prompting the question: are the Blues regressing under Rosenior’s stewardship? Rosenior’s tenure began on a high note, with victories in his first four league games against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Since that promising start, however, only one win has been recorded in the subsequent seven fixtures. An unbeaten run that lasted until the loss to Arsenal on March 1 was broken, and the Gunners also eliminated Chelsea in both legs of the Carabao Cup semi‑final. The disparity between Chelsea and the league’s elite was further highlighted by heavy defeats to both PSG and Manchester City.
"Rosenior started well and got some good results, but when Chelsea play the big boys, they get beaten up," observed Sky Sports analyst Paul Merson. While Rosenior can point to impressive away wins over Napoli and Aston Villa, the recent drubbing by City has left fans uneasy ahead of Michael Carrick’s Manchester United side. Rosenior was appointed to steady the ship after a turbulent conclusion to Enzo Maresca’s spell, yet three months on his record mirrors many of the issues that plagued his predecessor. Under Rosenior, Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per league game, a modest rise from the 1.48 points per game they managed earlier in the season.
Although this represents a slight statistical improvement, it remains the third‑lowest points‑per‑game average for a Chelsea manager since 2004 and falls short of the benchmark needed for Champions League qualification. Should the current rate persist, the club would finish the campaign with roughly 57 points – only five points above Liverpool’s present total in fifth place – leaving their European aspirations in doubt.
In a post‑match press conference, Rosenior reminded the media that even the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp required a full season to "sort things out" at Manchester City and Liverpool respectively. The 41‑year‑old is now eleven Premier League games into his role, having taken over mid‑season under challenging circumstances. He is not accountable for the transfer policy that has left the squad thin on experience and leadership, nor for the fatigue stemming from an exhaustive schedule that included a deep run in the Club World Cup last summer.
Nevertheless, supporters feel justified in demanding more. Chelsea’s mental fragility is not a new phenomenon – the team surrendered 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the campaign – but the problem has become more pronounced under Rosenior.
The Blues have repeatedly blown two‑goal and one‑goal leads, most notably against Leeds United and Burnley in February, and again versus PSG and Everton before the City loss. Discipline has also been a recurring issue; red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in back‑to‑back games against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly, and since Rosenior’s debut in January, Chelsea have accumulated more bookings than any other Premier League side.
While Rosenior cannot be held responsible for the internal suspension of Enzo Fernández following a controversial comment, the incident adds to a growing list of off‑field distractions that have plagued the squad. With only six league fixtures remaining and a four‑point gap to Liverpool, the outlook for a Champions League berth looks bleak.
Failure to qualify would likely spell trouble for Rosenior’s future at the club. Despite the string of disappointing results, there are statistical signs that suggest Rosenior’s impact may be more positive than the headline scores indicate. Expected goals (xG) data reveals that Chelsea’s net xG over the three months since his appointment is the second‑highest in the league, trailing only Arsenal.
This metric, which measures the quality of chances created versus those conceded, is widely regarded as a reliable predictor of future performance. In practical terms, Chelsea have been generating superior opportunities while limiting opponent chances, a trend that places them above both Manchester City and Liverpool in this analytical framework.
A rolling average chart of Chelsea’s xG and expected goals against (xGA) underscores Rosenior’s influence, showing an upward trajectory in chance creation even as the raw results have faltered. However, the trend reversed after the 1‑0 defeat to Newcastle, indicating that consistency remains elusive.
Ultimately, results are the currency that matters most in a season where every point is vital. After three successive league losses without scoring and a humiliating Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, Rosenior faces a formidable task: to convince a sceptical fanbase that he can steer the club back toward its traditional standards. The upcoming fixtures against Manchester United and the remaining Premier League matches will be the true test of whether Chelsea can halt their slide or whether the current trajectory signals a deeper regression under Rosenior’s leadership.