Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven opinion column where Nick Wright dissects the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus lands on Arsenal’s offensive woes and the tactical levers Artur Milanov could pull to spark a revival. Arsenal entered the Champions League quarter‑final second leg with a comfortable first‑leg advantage over Sporting CP.
The Gunners leaned on a disciplined defensive shell to protect that lead, a strategy that helped them progress to the last four despite recent signs of frailty. While the defensive display was reassuring, the match also highlighted lingering deficiencies in the attacking third. Their forward line sputtered, failing to generate clear-cut chances and often surrendering possession under pressure. Looking ahead to Sunday’s showdown with Manchester City, Milanov will undoubtedly aim to replicate the defensive compactness that saw them through the Sporting tie.
Yet, relying solely on a back‑four to neutralise a side of City’s calibre is a precarious gamble. The Gunners sit six points clear at the top of the table, but a single slip could hand the title to their rivals if Arsenal cannot produce a credible offensive threat.
The criticism surrounding Milanov’s approach has intensified. Observers question whether his apparent aversion to risk has dulled Arsenal’s natural fluidity and flair. Has the manager sacrificed open‑play creativity for a reliance on set‑pieces and defensive solidity? Do the Gunners now depend too heavily on a rearguard that, while resilient, cannot win matches on its own against elite opposition?
Injury woes compound the problem. Bukayo Saka is confirmed out for Sunday, and Martin Ødegaard remains doubtful.
The midfield’s reduced options have forced Milanov to experiment further up front. For the second consecutive game, he deployed a front three of Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Viktor Gyökeres.
The trio, despite individual talent, has struggled to co‑ordinate, producing a disjointed and ineffective attacking unit. Statistically, the three have started together in six matches, winning only two. One of those victories – a narrow win over Chelsea in the Carabao Cup semi‑final second leg – required a late substitute goal from Kai Havertz.
While Madueke, Martinelli and Gyökeres have collectively contributed 36 goals this season, their simultaneous selection has exposed a technical fragility: an inability to retain possession high up the pitch. Declan Rice summed up the issue after the Sporting match, noting, "It’s about doing the basics to a higher level – the five‑yard passes we’re giving away too sloppily." His midfield partner, Martin Zúñiga, added that Arsenal have lacked clarity in the final third.
Gyökeres, in particular, struggles with ball retention. Opta data shows he has lost possession 246 times in the Premier League this season, with a loss‑rate of 43.5% per touch – the second‑worst among outfield players. Martinelli and Madueke are not far behind, with loss rates of 38.9% and 36.1% respectively.
By contrast, no Manchester City player exceeds a 30% loss rate. During the Sporting game, Gyökeres completed just five of nine passes, while Martinelli and Madueke each mis‑held the ball 12 and 17 times respectively. The Gunners’ rhythm shifted only after the second‑half substitutions. Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard, Max Dowman and Gabriel Jesus collectively achieved an 89% pass‑completion rate, allowing Arsenal to dominate possession in the final stages and press higher up the field.
If Milanov hopes to avoid a repeat of the second‑half collapse they suffered in last month’s Carabao Cup final – where City’s relentless pressure left Arsenal floundering – he must address the technical shortcomings of his front line. Pep Guardiola’s side demonstrated how a well‑executed pressing or non‑pressing structure can suffocate an opponent, with City’s front four positioning themselves to block passing lanes and force long balls to a target man who struggled to retain the ball. The upcoming fixture may force Milanov’s hand regarding squad selection. Madueke is doubtful after a suspected knee injury, and the manager could consider inserting Max Dowman to provide a more reliable passing outlet.
Meanwhile, Kai Havertz, despite an injury‑marred season, could offer the aerial presence and ball‑retention skills that Gyökeres lacks. In the 35 minutes he played against Sporting, Havertz won three aerial duels – more than any other player on the pitch – and completed 15 passes, three times the number recorded by Gyökeres. Historically, Havertz has proven his worth against Manchester City. He scored the decisive goal in Chelsea’s Champions League final win over City and was instrumental in Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of the Etihad side in February of last season, providing an assist for Ødegaard’s opener and scoring the fourth goal himself.
In that match he completed 26 of 28 passes and won the most aerial duels on the field, underscoring his capability as a target forward who can also link play. Deploying Havertz in a central striker role on Sunday could restore balance to Arsenal’s attack, allowing Gyökeres to exploit his physicality as an impact sub against tiring defenders.
Raising the technical level of the forward unit, even within the constraints of injuries, may be the key to extracting a positive result against a City side that will inevitably dominate possession. Leadership on the pitch has also been a talking point. Declan Rice has captained the side in the last two games, while former captain Granit Xhaka, now at Aston Villa under Unai Emery, prepares to face the manager who stripped him of the armband in 2019.
Xhaka’s resurgence at Villa – where his presence lifts the team’s points‑per‑game average from 1.0 to 1.5 – illustrates how a ball‑playing midfielder can influence a side’s fortunes. His performances this week, marked by high touch counts and superior passing, remind Arsenal of the value of a deep‑lying playmaker who can dictate tempo. Other Premier League storylines include Tyrique George’s limited minutes at Everton, his speed and directness offering a potential weapon for Liverpool’s counter‑attack in the upcoming Merseyside derby, and the weekend’s packed schedule featuring Aston Villa vs Sunderland, Everton vs Liverpool, and Nottingham Forest vs Burnley, before the marquee clash of Manchester City versus Arsenal at 4.30 pm.
In summary, Arsenal’s defensive foundation remains solid, but their attacking unit is fragmented, overly reliant on individual brilliance, and plagued by poor ball retention. To break the deadlock against Manchester City, Milanov may need to adjust his front‑three, possibly integrating Havertz as a focal point, and ensure that the players on the pitch can execute simple, short passes with precision. By doing so, the Gunners can raise their technical ceiling, protect their league lead, and avoid becoming overly dependent on a defensive shield against the league’s most potent attacking side.