Wolves have already slipped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to follow, leaving fans to wonder which other club will join them at the bottom. With Leeds United and Nottingham Forest now comfortably positioned eight and five points clear of the relegation zone, the fight for survival seems to have narrowed to a direct contest between the two London clubs, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. The gap between the Hammers and the Spurs is razor‑thin – just two points separate them in 17th and 18th place – and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of dropping into the drop zone is mounting for both sides. West Ham might look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull ahead; a win would have left Tottenham trailing.
Instead, the situation remains delicately balanced. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espírito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep the mood upbeat. His counterpart, Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, echoed a similar optimism, insisting his side can string together five consecutive victories after their recent stalemate with Brighton.
During Monday Night Football, former Liverpool and England defender Jamie Carragher praised the progress Tottenham have shown under the Italian coach. "There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances," Carragher said.
"They played very well over the weekend and should have taken more than a single point from that game." Despite that praise, the Spurs’ draw with Brighton extended their Premier League winless run to fifteen matches – more than twice as long as any other club’s streak. The next‑longest run belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley, who have gone seven games without a win. Breaking the fifteen‑match drought will be a tall order, even when they face already‑relegated Wolves on Saturday, according to Carragher: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December – it’s unbelievable. I can’t see them losing, but they could nick a point.
However, Wolves are a tough side to beat at home given their defensive setup." While De Zerbi is still trying to generate momentum from a standing start, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s season around. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and their resurgence dates back to a dramatic January win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson scored in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 victory. Since that turning point, West Ham have compiled the sixth‑best record in the division, amassing five wins and three defeats from twelve games – a points‑per‑game ratio of 1.6, a stark improvement from the 0.7 they were averaging earlier in the season.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest are enjoying a five‑game unbeaten run, their longest of the campaign, after a convincing 4‑1 triumph over Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s opponents average an 11th‑place finish, slightly easier than West Ham’s average opponent rank of 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4.
However, home‑away balance tilts in West Ham’s favour: three of their final five matches are at the London Stadium, whereas Tottenham have only two home games left. The Spurs must also endure trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea – both daunting assignments. Spurs have historically struggled at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, failing to win any of their last seven league visits. They have also lost their previous five encounters with the Blues and their last four matches against Aston Villa.
West Ham’s away schedule is not without its challenges either; they travel to Brentford and Newcastle and must host title‑chasing Arsenal. Everton’s manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side visits the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest’s remaining programme looks the toughest when judged by opponent league positions. Like Tottenham, they have three away games left, including trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland.
Yet, with the survival threshold often cited around 38 points, Forest may only need a single win to feel safe. After their crucial Sunday victory over Burnley, they sit on 36 points, meaning a win against Sunderland would lift them to 39 and bring them within striking distance of safety.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison returned to the squad for the first time this season after a lengthy knee injury layoff. Although he remained an unused substitute in the Brighton game, his presence suggested he could feature before the season concludes. Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs. Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in after the Sunderland defeat, and key attackers such as Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and defender Ben Davies are also unavailable.
Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most vital creative outlets alongside Maddison, has not featured all season. By contrast, West Ham enjoy an almost spotless injury list. Premier Injuries reports that only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański is sidelined, giving Nuno a far broader selection of players than De Zerbi, whose options are limited by the Spurs’ injury woes.
Statistical models from Opta, which run tens of thousands of simulations based on a massive data set, now predict that Tottenham are the favourites for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% chance of dropping down, compared with West Ham’s 36.9% probability. Nottingham Forest’s relegation risk is a modest 4.4%, while 15th‑placed Leeds United appear almost safe with a 0.4% chance after reaching 39 points. Opta’s expected points projection suggests Tottenham will finish the season on 37 points, two fewer than West Ham’s projected 39.
This puts De Zerbi under considerable pressure to reverse the trend and secure enough points to stay up. In summary, the final stretch of the Premier League season has turned into a high‑stakes duel between two London clubs fighting for survival. West Ham have the advantage of recent form, a healthier squad and a slightly easier fixture list, while Tottenham must overcome injuries, a poor recent record against top opponents and the psychological weight of a long winless run.
Nottingham Forest remain in the mix but appear to need just one more victory to distance themselves from the danger zone. As the calendar ticks down, every point will be fought for with intensity, and the ultimate outcome will hinge on which side can seize the momentum in these decisive matches.