Despite Liam Rosenior's initial optimism, pointing to Chelsea's fourth-place standing in the Premier League table since his appointment, their recent performance has raised concerns. A three-goal defeat to Manchester City has seen them drop to ninth place, marking their third consecutive Premier League loss without scoring. This downturn, combined with a dismal 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, has resulted in five losses from six games across all competitions, putting pressure on Rosenior ahead of the upcoming match against Manchester United.
Rosenior's tenure began positively, with four consecutive Premier League wins against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Wolves. However, they have only managed one win in their last seven games. The gap between Chelsea and top-tier teams was starkly evident in their losses to PSG and Manchester City.
Sky Sports' Paul Merson noted, 'Rosenior started well but when Chelsea face the big teams, they get beaten up.' While Rosenior has secured notable wins away to Napoli and Aston Villa, the Manchester City loss has fueled supporter pessimism. Rosenior's task was to get Chelsea back on track after a tumultuous end to Enzo Maresca's reign, but his record, three months in, bears a striking resemblance. Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, a slight increase from 1.48 per game previously this season. However, this is still the third-lowest average by a Chelsea boss since 2004 and falls short of what is needed to secure a Champions League spot.
If Chelsea continue at this rate, they would finish with just 57 points, only five points higher than Liverpool's current total. The trajectory of their form suggests that even this might be out of reach unless Rosenior can oversee significantly improved results.
Rosenior reminded fans that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool. At just 11 Premier League games into his reign, having taken the job mid-season in challenging circumstances, Rosenior is not responsible for the recruitment that has left Chelsea with a squad lacking experience and leadership. He is also dealing with the aftermath of their extensive football schedule, including going the distance in the Club World Cup last summer. Nonetheless, fans are entitled to expect more.
Chelsea's mental fragility is not new, having lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the season. This issue has become more pronounced under Rosenior, with their Premier League form not recovering from surrendering leads against Leeds and Burnley in February.
Sunday's loss to Manchester City followed similar collapses against PSG and Everton. Rosenior has struggled to address Chelsea's issues with ill-discipline, including red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal.
Since Rosenior's first Premier League game, Chelsea have received more cards than any other side. The head coach is not accountable for Enzo Fernandez's internal two-game suspension but is another example of a player stepping out of line. Four points behind Liverpool with only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea's outlook for a Champions League finish does not look promising.
Missing out on this could have negative implications for Rosenior. Based on their collapse against Manchester City, Chelsea might soon have to look over their shoulders in the Premier League table. However, there is encouragement for Rosenior in the underlying numbers.
Recent results have been damaging, but Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been significantly better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals. In fact, Chelsea's net expected goals since Rosenior's appointment is the second-highest among Premier League sides, behind only leaders Arsenal. This expected goal differential is a strong indicator of a team's future performance, showing Chelsea have created far better chances than they have conceded, placing them above Manchester City and Liverpool.
The numbers have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. While results matter most, especially with so much at stake, Rosenior has his work cut out to convince Chelsea fans he is the right man to take the club forward after three straight Premier League losses without scoring and their Champions League demolition by Paris Saint-Germain.