Chelsea's Poor Luck Masks Deeper Issues

The Debrief, a Sky Sports column, analyzes key Premier League stories using data and opinion. Recently, Liam Rosenior pointed out that Chelsea ranked fourth in the Premier League table since he took over, but they have now dropped to ninth. Their defeat by Manchester United marked four consecutive losses, with three at home. Rosenior attributed the loss to bad luck, stating that Chelsea dominated the game but failed to capitalize on their chances. However, Opta reported that only three shots struck the frame of the goal, not four or five as Rosenior claimed. Chelsea's finishing has been poor, with the team failing to score despite having the most shots since mid-March. This statistic is extraordinary, but it's worth noting that United had the clearest opening of the game. Chelsea's opportunities were numerous but of lower quality, a feature of their play under Rosenior during this poor run. In fact, only Wolves have had a lower expected-goals total per shot than Chelsea over the past 10 games. Penetrating the penalty box has been a problem, and their chances are not good chances. This has led to blanking despite 'dominating' being a recurring theme. Perhaps more worrying than the possibility that this is a product of their style of play is the potential for it to be a consequence of their personnel. Is it really a coincidence that United's Matheus Cunha found the crisp finish to decide the game? The Brazilian has overperformed his expected goals significantly during his time in the Premier League. Every single one of Chelsea's attacking players on the pitch on Saturday have underperformed expected goals throughout their careers in the competition. Football is a game of fine margins, and Chelsea will score again soon. However, on a Premier League weekend when proven scorers Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah proved decisive for their sides, maybe Chelsea's bad luck in front of goal has been baked into their model. Meanwhile, Jamie Carragher focused on Florian Wirtz before the Merseyside derby, describing his haul of four goals and three assists as 'neat and tidy, not really hurting the opposition.' Wirtz struggled to retain possession in a frenetic game, was outmuscled, and unable to impose himself as Carragher and the Liverpool fans would have hoped. He has not shown the swagger expected, and his obvious talent buys him time, but there are limits to patience. Newcastle are still playing with intensity, ranking second in the Premier League for sprints, but this approach is leaving gaps. Their success has become part of their problem, and if they are slow to press and the defense does not push up, spaces open up. In their 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth, Newcastle were never really in control, and the margins were fine, but Andoni Iraola's side had the better chances. Since the end of January, Newcastle's expected goals against is worse than every team in the Premier League bar bottom-club Wolves. The home form is alarming, with Newcastle losing five of their last six Premier League games at St James' Park. A vulnerable Newcastle makes for a vulnerable Eddie Howe, and his selection decisions are under scrutiny.