Arsenal's Creative Conundrum: Can Set Pieces Alone Secure the Title?

Welcome to The Debrief, a column where Adam Bate analyzes key Premier League stories using data and opinion. This week, he examines Arsenal's recent performance. The team's home defeat to Bournemouth, combined with Manchester City's win at Chelsea, has put the title back in the balance. However, it was Arsenal's lackluster display that raised concerns. Despite Andoni Iraola's Bournemouth playing well, Mikel Arteta's team struggled to create chances, relying heavily on set-pieces. Their expected goals total from open play was a mere 0.18, reflecting their limited creativity. This overreliance on set-plays has been a theme throughout the campaign, with Arteta's team exceling in such situations. Nevertheless, this approach can hinder their momentum, as seen in the match against Bournemouth. The Gunners spent 26 minutes and 48 seconds in possession but with the ball dead, including six minutes preparing for corners and seven minutes waiting for throw-ins. Perhaps Arsenal are aware of their strengths, as this formula has taken them to the top of the Premier League table. However, it has resulted in a disjointed game, and this is not an isolated incident. Arsenal often struggle to create chances from open play, with six matches this season having an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower. This is unusual for a Premier League leader, as the eventual winners typically rank among the top two in open-play creativity. Arsenal currently rank sixth in this metric, below Brighton. While it may not matter if they can beat Manchester City in their next match, their lack of fluency could be a problem. City seem capable of going on a run, whereas Arsenal are relying on individual moments. In other news, West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves moved them out of the relegation zone, thanks in part to Jarrod Bowen's two assists. Bowen has been consistent, with eight goal involvements in the Premier League this season, and his output remains impressive. Since signing for West Ham in January 2020, he ranks among the top half-dozen players in the Premier League for goal involvements. If Bowen can finish the season strongly, he may join an exclusive club, as only Erling Haaland has achieved 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons. Meanwhile, Sunderland's Brian Brobbey led the line impressively in their 1-0 win over Tottenham, with his ability to hold up the ball being particularly notable. According to statistics, Brobbey has held the ball up 48 times this season, with a higher success rate of retaining possession than anyone else near the top of the list.