Following Liverpool's Champions League elimination by Paris St-Germain, we examine Arne Slot's reasoning for the team's struggles this season, focusing on missed opportunities, injuries, and VAR decisions... Slot has consistently expressed frustration over Liverpool's inability to capitalize on scoring chances, a trend that continued against PSG, where they had 1.92 Expected Goals but failed to score.
"It's one of many examples this season where we couldn't convert our chances into goals," Slot noted. "We underperformed significantly in terms of xG, a pattern that has persisted throughout the season." In the Champions League, Liverpool's underperformance in converting xG into goals is evident, having scored 24 goals from 27.8xG, the largest shortfall among quarter-finalists. However, the Premier League picture is less severe, with Liverpool's goal total being only 0.65 below their xG total.
While this is some distance from teams like Arsenal and Manchester City, nine teams have a worse xG conversion differential than Liverpool. Big chances missed have been particularly costly for Liverpool, with two such instances against PSG. Only Aston Villa have a worse conversion rate of Opta-defined big chances in the Premier League this season.
Liverpool have failed to capitalize on 59 of 86 clear-cut opportunities in the top flight. Players like Curtis Jones, Florian Wirtz, and Alexis Mac Allister have underperformed their individual xG totals, while Mohamed Salah has missed 11 of 14 big chances and Virgil van Dijk has converted just one of eight clear-cut openings.
Alexander Isak's injury issues, including a broken leg, have hindered his ability to contribute significantly to Liverpool's goal tally this season. The plan was for Isak, Wirtz, and Hugo Ekitike to form a new-look attack, but injuries have limited their time together on the pitch.
"We've played with Florian, Alex, and Hugo for only 88 minutes before Tuesday, and I'd be surprised if we add many more minutes to that this season," Slot said. Ekitike's injury against PSG added to Liverpool's frustrating night, with Slot highlighting the team's inability to use their key players together consistently. First-choice goalkeeper Alisson has missed games due to hamstring problems, while other players like Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Jeremie Frimpong, Wataru Endo, and Joe Gomez have also been sidelined for significant periods. Slot has also been critical of VAR decisions, citing the overturned penalty against PSG as another example of the officials going against his team.
He referenced previous instances, including a Brentford penalty awarded after a VAR check and a Leeds penalty awarded after the referee consulted the monitor. Slot expressed his frustration, stating, "If you look at our season, I'm not surprised, as many decisions have gone against us." Despite some favorable decisions in the first leg against PSG, Slot feels that the officials' calls have generally gone against Liverpool this season. The team's Champions League exit and potential trophyless season have increased the pressure on Slot to secure a top-five finish in the Premier League and qualify for the Champions League next season. However, Slot remains optimistic about the team's future, citing the quality of young players like Ryan Gravenberch, Ekitike, Wirtz, Bradley, and Milos Kerkez, as well as the potential of 17-year-old Rio Ngumoha.
To capitalize on this potential, Liverpool needs to deliver results in the final six games of the Premier League campaign to ensure a Champions League spot next season.