Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column where Adam Bate combines data and opinion to analyze key Premier League stories. This week, we examine Chelsea's struggles under Liam Rosenior, who recently pointed out that his team ranked fourth in the Premier League table since he took over. However, they have now dropped to ninth.
The team's defeat by Manchester United marked their fourth consecutive loss, with three of those losses occurring at home. This is a rare occurrence for the club, with their previous run of three consecutive home defeats in the Premier League including a loss to Oldham. Rosenior attributed the loss to United to bad luck, stating that Chelsea dominated the game but failed to capitalize on their opportunities. He noted that his team hit the woodwork four or five times, although Opta claims it was only three shots that struck the frame of the goal.
While Chelsea's finishing has been poor, with the team failing to score despite having the most shots since mid-March, their opportunities have been of lower quality. In fact, only Wolves have had a lower expected-goals total per shot than Chelsea over the past 10 games. This suggests that the team's struggles may be due to their style of play or personnel, rather than just bad luck.
The potential for this to be a consequence of their personnel is particularly worrying, as United's Matheus Cunha found the decisive finish in the game. Cunha has consistently overperformed his expected goals in the Premier League, whereas Chelsea's attacking players have underperformed. Meanwhile, Liverpool's Florian Wirtz has been struggling to make an impact, with Jamie Carragher describing his performance as 'neat and tidy' but lacking in terms of hurting the opposition. Wirtz's statistics are tricky to assess, as he ranks second in the Premier League for open-play chances created, but his chances are often of low quality.
He has not shown the confidence and swagger expected of him, and his inability to retain possession and impose himself on the game has been noticeable. Newcastle, on the other hand, are still playing with intensity, ranking second in the Premier League for sprints this season.
However, this approach is leaving gaps, and their defense has become a problem. The team has lost five of their last six Premier League games at home, and their expected goals against is worse than every team in the Premier League bar bottom-club Wolves.
This has put manager Eddie Howe under scrutiny, with his selection decisions and role in recruitment being questioned.