Football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insights into the weekend's action, offering a 78/1 treble bet. Regular readers are aware that exploiting the value in match-ups in the fouls market can be lucrative. The resurgence of physical centre forwards has added a new dynamic to analysing foul markets, as centre backs are being fouled more due to the aggressive nature of these strikers. Brian Brobbey epitomizes this type of player.
He was involved in eight fouls against Spurs last weekend, and his match-up with Ezri Konsa looks promising for a fouls bet. Konsa is skilled at winning fouls, averaging 1.5 fouls won per home game this season, and is likely to outmaneuver Brobbey. At 4/5 with Sky Bet, Konsa is a good bet to win two or more fouls. Liverpool's inability to score in the first half of away games remains a trend, with only three first-half goals in their last 17 away matches.
Arne Slot's cautious approach has made Liverpool's games dull at times. If you had backed Liverpool to not score in the first half of their away games, you would have won 14 out of the last 17 times. With Everton's strong defensive record, the likelihood of Liverpool not scoring in the first half increases. The Toffees have kept a clean sheet in the first half in 10 of their 16 home games and haven't conceded a first-half goal in their last four games.
This bet is available at 5/6 with Sky Bet. Burnley's poor form, with only one win in their last 23 Premier League matches, makes them an ideal opponent for teams struggling at the bottom. Forest have a great opportunity to capitalize on this, especially at home with the crowd behind them.
However, a high-scoring game is unlikely, as Forest tend to win games through structure and discipline rather than relentless attacking. They have scored only two goals in their last seven home games, and a single goal might be enough to secure a win.
A Forest win and under 3.5 goals is available at 6/5 with Sky Bet. The upcoming match between Arsenal and Manchester City is a crucial one, but the smart bet is on the draw at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
Arsenal's attacking woes are evident, with only three goals in their last five games, while Manchester City scored three goals in 17 minutes against Chelsea last weekend. The absence of Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka has significantly impacted Arsenal's output, with their goals per game dropping from 2.1 to 1.3 without both players starting.
Mikel Arteta would likely settle for a draw, and Arsenal's best approach would be to focus on their defensive strengths and try to shut down the game. They will aim to make it difficult for City to score and win set-pieces. Sometimes, bets are less about the player and more about the challenge they face.
This is the case with Chris Richards, who may be matched up against Crysencio Summerville if he starts for Crystal Palace. Summerville has drawn the most yellow cards from opponents this season, and Richards has already been carded in two of his last three Premier League appearances. This sets up a potentially difficult evening for Richards, making him a good bet to be carded at 9/2 with Sky Bet. A treble bet on Ayden Heaven to be carded, Manchester City to draw with Arsenal, and Chris Richards to be carded is available at 78/1 with Sky Bet.