Chelsea's Misfortune: Is it Just Bad Luck or Something More?

Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column where Adam Bate analyzes key stories from the latest Premier League matches using data and opinion. This week, Liam Rosenior's Chelsea is under scrutiny after a string of poor performances. Despite Rosenior's claims of bad luck, there may be more to it. The team's inability to score, despite having numerous shots, is a significant concern. In fact, since mid-March, Chelsea is the only Premier League team not to score, despite having the most shots. This extraordinary statistic suggests that the team's finishing has been spectacularly bad. Furthermore, Opta claims that only three shots struck the frame of the goal, not four or five as Rosenior stated. The team's opportunities, while numerous, have been of lower quality, which has been a feature of their play under Rosenior during this poor run. In fact, only Wolves have had a lower expected-goals total per shot than Chelsea over the past 10 games. Penetrating the penalty box has been a problem, and their chances are not good chances. This has led to a recurring theme of blanking despite 'dominating' games. Perhaps even more worrying than the possibility that this is a product of their style of play is the potential for it to be a consequence of their personnel. Is it really a coincidence that United's Matheus Cunha found the crisp finish to decide the game? The Brazilian has overperformed his expected goals significantly during his time in the Premier League. Every single one of Chelsea's attacking players on the pitch on Saturday have underperformed expected goals throughout their careers in the competition. Football is a game of fine margins, and Chelsea will score again soon. However, on a Premier League weekend when proven scorers Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah proved decisive for their sides, maybe Chelsea's bad luck in front of goal has been baked into their model. Meanwhile, Jamie Carragher focused on Florian Wirtz before the Merseyside derby. Carragher described Wirtz's haul of four goals and three assists as 'neat and tidy, not really hurting the opposition in terms of getting assists and scoring goals.' Although Liverpool did win the game late on through Virgil van Dijk, it was another game that passed Wirtz by. The statistics highlighted why Wirtz is so tricky to assess. He now ranks second in the Premier League behind Bruno Fernandes for open-play chances created. However, the eye test told a different tale. Wirtz struggled to retain possession in a game that was typically frenetic. He was outmuscled and unable to impose himself as Carragher and the Liverpool fans would have hoped. There was one successful dribble and no shots. Wirtz can be a joy to watch in full flow, gliding across the turf, and there is no questioning his work rate. He ranks fourth in the Premier League for runs this season, and the three men above him have all played more minutes. Always seeking space, not always found. But he has not shown the chutzpah expected. Where is the swagger, the appetite to take risks to make things happen that has marked out Rayan Cherki as an emerging superstar at Manchester City? Wirtz was a leader at Leverkusen, but he is not yet that at Liverpool. His obvious talent, not to mention his long-term contract, buys him time. However, there are limits to patience. 'He is in a new league, new manager, new system,' said Carragher. 'But we are 10 months in now. We need to see a lot more.' On the face of it, Newcastle is still playing with the old intensity, ranking second in the Premier League this season for sprints. But that approach is leaving gaps now. Part of Newcastle's success has become part of their problem. If they are a little slow to that press and if the defense does not push up, then those spaces open up. There were lots of them in their 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth, a game they were never really in control of. Howe insisted that the margins were fine, but Andoni Iraola's side had the better chances, and an expected-goals total of 2.99 reflected that. It is the highest Newcastle has conceded this season, just edging out last week's tally against Crystal Palace. A trend. Since the end of January, their expected goals against is worse than every team in the Premier League bar bottom-club Wolves. They are sandwiched between the three clubs in the relegation zone, confirming their status as one of the leakiest defenses in the league. The home form is alarming. Newcastle has lost five of their last six Premier League games at St James' Park, as many as they lost in total last season and as many as the two seasons prior to that combined. It is a fortress breached, a daunting trip no more. A vulnerable Newcastle makes for a vulnerable Howe. Even the much-maligned Steve Bruce never finished as low as Newcastle currently lies in the Premier League table. As a result, Howe finds his selection decisions under scrutiny, with his role in recruitment inflaming that. Yoane Wissa has had little impact, Anthony Elanga was poor again, and Nick Woltemade has become a problem to solve. Howe knows that he must find the answers at the top end of the pitch, but it is Newcastle's dismal defensive record that is damning right now.