Rosenior Rues Chelsea's Bad Fortune, But Is There More to It?

Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column where Adam Bate combines data and opinion to reflect on key Premier League stories. This week, we examine Chelsea's slump under Liam Rosenior, who recently pointed out that his team ranked fourth in the Premier League table since he took over. However, they have now dropped to ninth. The defeat to Manchester United marked four consecutive losses, with three of those coming at home. Rosenior attributed the loss to United to bad luck, stating that Chelsea dominated the game but failed to capitalize on their chances. He claimed that his team hit the woodwork four or five times, although Opta reported only three shots striking the frame of the goal. While Rosenior's assessment is partially correct, as Chelsea's finishing has been poor, the team's opportunities were largely of low quality. In fact, only Wolves have had a lower expected-goals total per shot than Chelsea over their last 10 games. This suggests that the team's struggles may be more than just bad luck. Perhaps the problem lies with their personnel, as all of Chelsea's attacking players have underperformed their expected goals throughout their Premier League careers. Meanwhile, United's Matheus Cunha has consistently overperformed his expected goals. The Brazilian's crisp finish decided the game, highlighting the difference in quality between the two teams' attacking players. Elsewhere, Jamie Carragher criticized Liverpool's Florian Wirtz for his lack of impact in the Merseyside derby. Despite creating numerous chances, Wirtz struggled to retain possession and impose himself on the game. His statistics are tricky to assess, as he ranks second in the Premier League for open-play chances created, but his actual impact on the game has been limited. Wirtz's failure to take risks and make things happen has been notable, and he has not shown the swagger expected of a player of his talent. Newcastle, meanwhile, are still playing with intensity, but their approach is leaving gaps that opponents are exploiting. Their defeat to Bournemouth highlighted their defensive issues, as they conceded numerous chances and had an expected-goals total of 2.99 against them. Since the end of January, Newcastle's expected goals against has been worse than every team in the Premier League except Wolves. Their home form is alarming, with five losses in their last six Premier League games at St James' Park. As a result, manager Eddie Howe is under scrutiny, and his selection decisions are being questioned. With the team's defensive record damning, Howe must find answers at the top end of the pitch to turn their season around.