Chelsea's Misfortune: More Than Just Bad Luck

Welcome to The Debrief, a column where data and opinion come together to analyze key stories from the latest Premier League matches. This week, we examine Chelsea's struggles under Liam Rosenior, who recently pointed out that his team ranked fourth in the Premier League table since he took over, but they have now dropped to ninth. The defeat to Manchester United marked four consecutive losses, with three of those coming at home. Rosenior attributed the loss to United as undeserved, stating that Chelsea dominated the game but failed to capitalize on their chances. He noted that they hit the woodwork four or five times, although Opta reported only three shots striking the frame of the goal. While Rosenior is right that Chelsea's finishing has been poor, it is worth noting that United had the clearest opening of the game, and Chelsea's opportunities were of lower quality. In fact, only Wolves have had a lower expected-goals total per shot than Chelsea over the past 10 games, and their chances have not been good ones. Perhaps even more concerning is that this could be a consequence of their personnel, as United's Matheus Cunha found the decisive finish. Every single one of Chelsea's attacking players on the pitch has underperformed expected goals throughout their careers in the competition. Meanwhile, Jamie Carragher criticized Florian Wirtz's performance before the Merseyside derby, describing his haul of four goals and three assists as 'neat and tidy' but not impactful. Wirtz now ranks second in the Premier League for open-play chances created, but his stats do not tell the whole story. He struggled to retain possession and was outmuscled in the game. While Wirtz can be a joy to watch, he has not shown the swagger expected, and his obvious talent buys him time, but there are limits to patience. Newcastle, on the other hand, are still playing with intensity, ranking second in the Premier League for sprints, but this approach is leaving gaps. Their success has become part of their problem, as they are slow to press and their defense does not push up, leaving spaces open. In their 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth, they were never really in control, and their expected-goals total of 2.99 reflected that. Since the end of January, their expected goals against is worse than every team in the Premier League bar bottom-club Wolves, confirming their status as one of the leakiest defenses in the league.