Following a dismal 3-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester City, Chelsea has plummeted five places to ninth in the Premier League table under Liam Rosenior's leadership. This loss, coupled with their inability to score in three consecutive Premier League matches, has intensified the pressure on Rosenior ahead of the upcoming match against Manchester United. The team's recent performance, including a crushing 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, has raised concerns about their trajectory under Rosenior. Initially, Rosenior's tenure began on a positive note, with Chelsea securing four consecutive Premier League victories.
However, they have only managed to win one of their last seven games. Despite some impressive wins, such as those against Napoli and Aston Villa, the gap between Chelsea and top-tier teams like Manchester City and PSG has become increasingly apparent. Rosenior's record, three months into his tenure, bears a striking resemblance to that of his predecessor, Enzo Maresca.
Chelsea's average of 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior is a slight improvement over their previous average, but it still ranks as the third-lowest for a Chelsea manager since 2004. This average falls short of what is required to secure a Champions League spot, and if the team continues at this rate, they are projected to finish with merely 57 points, a meager five points above Liverpool's current total. The worry is that the team's current form suggests that even this target might be unattainable unless Rosenior can oversee a dramatic improvement in results.
Rosenior has pointed out that renowned managers like Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed time to establish themselves at their respective clubs. However, with only 11 Premier League games under his belt, the 41-year-old Rosenior is still in the early stages of his tenure.
He is not responsible for the recruitment decisions that have left the squad lacking experience and leadership, nor is he accountable for the consequences of the team's extensive football schedule, including their participation in the Club World Cup. Nevertheless, fans are entitled to expect more from the team. Chelsea's mental fragility is not a new issue, as they lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca earlier in the season. Unfortunately, this problem has only intensified under Rosenior, with the team struggling to maintain leads and discipline.
Since Rosenior's first game in charge, Chelsea has received more cards than any other team, and incidents like the red cards given to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto have proven costly. With four points separating them from Liverpool and only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea's prospects of securing a Champions League finish appear bleak. Their second-half collapse against Manchester City has raised concerns that they might soon need to focus on maintaining their position in the Premier League table. However, there is a glimmer of hope in the underlying numbers.
According to expected goals, Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been significantly better than their results suggest. In fact, their net expected goals over the past three months rank second-highest among Premier League teams, surpassing Manchester City and Liverpool. This metric is considered a strong indicator of a team's future performance, and Chelsea's numbers indicate that they have created far better chances than they have conceded. Although results are paramount, especially at this stage of the season, Rosenior faces an uphill battle to convince Chelsea fans that he is the right person to lead the club forward.