Following Chelsea's recent three-goal defeat at the hands of Manchester City, the team has slipped to ninth place in the Premier League table under Liam Rosenior's guidance. This downturn has sparked concerns that the club may be regressing under his leadership. Rosenior initially pointed out that Chelsea were fourth in the Premier League since his appointment, but their current position tells a different story. The team's struggles have been compounded by a chastening 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, resulting in five losses from their last six games across all competitions.
As a result, Chelsea is facing an uphill battle to secure a top-five finish, raising questions about the direction of the club under Rosenior's stewardship. His tenure began on a positive note, with the team winning their first four Premier League games against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Wolves.
However, they have only managed to win one of their last seven games. The gap between Chelsea and the top-tier teams was further highlighted by their defeats at the hands of PSG and Manchester City.
Sky Sports' Paul Merson noted that 'Rosenior started well, but when Chelsea play the big teams, they get beaten up.' Despite impressive wins away to Napoli and Aston Villa, Rosenior's record, three months into his tenure, is strikingly similar to that of his predecessor. Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, which, although a slight increase from the previous season, is still the third-lowest by a Chelsea manager since 2004. This average falls short of what is required to secure a Champions League spot, and if the team continues at this rate, they would finish with just 57 points, only five points higher than Liverpool's current total. Rosenior has reminded fans that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool, respectively.
However, with the team's current trajectory, there are concerns that even 57 points might be out of reach unless Rosenior can oversee a dramatic improvement in results. The 41-year-old head coach has faced tough circumstances, including a squad lacking experience and leadership, and the consequences of a heavy football schedule. Fans, though, are entitled to expect more from the team. Chelsea's mental fragility is not a new issue, having lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca earlier in the season.
This problem has only become more pronounced under Rosenior, with the team surrendering leads against Leeds, Burnley, and Manchester City. The head coach has been unable to address the team's ill-discipline, with red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal proving costly. Since Rosenior's first Premier League game in charge, Chelsea have received more cards than any other team.
With only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea's prospects of securing a Champions League finish look bleak, and missing out on this prize could have significant implications for Rosenior. Although recent results have been damaging, the underlying numbers suggest that Chelsea's performances under Rosenior have been better than their results indicate.
According to expected goals, Chelsea's net expected goals in the three months since Rosenior's appointment is the second-highest among Premier League teams, behind only leaders Arsenal. This expected goal differential is considered a strong indicator of a team's future performance, and Chelsea's total shows they have created far better chances than they have conceded.
The numbers, however, have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. Ultimately, results matter most, especially at this point in the season, and after three straight Premier League losses without scoring, Rosenior faces a significant challenge in convincing Chelsea fans that he is the right person to lead the club forward.