David Moyes' return to Everton 11 years after his initial departure was met with skepticism. On the surface, it seemed like a desperate attempt by the club to cling to nostalgia and generate short-term positivity amidst their struggle to stay in the Premier League. The team was in financial turmoil, having suffered a points deduction less than 18 months prior, and was just one point above the relegation zone when Moyes returned to Goodison Park. Fast forward to the present, and Everton finds itself in a new home with renewed ambitions, particularly ahead of the first Hill Dickinson Merseyside derby, broadcast live on Sky Sports.
The prospect of European football, let alone Champions League aspirations, would have been laughed at when Moyes first walked back through the door. Since his initial departure, Everton had continued to drift away from those coveted qualification spots. The question on everyone's mind is, what sparked this turnaround? Perhaps it was simply a matter of reinstating the man who last brought European football to the club two decades ago.
However, that might be doing Moyes a disservice, considering his achievements, including delivering West Ham's only European title. A win over arch-rivals Liverpool on Sunday would leave Everton just two points shy of the fifth-placed spot, which guarantees a Champions League return. The Premier League table since Moyes' return has Everton sitting in seventh place, above Manchester United, Newcastle, and Tottenham, all of whom have recent Champions League experience or currently occupy a Champions League spot.
Notably, these clubs have spent significantly more than Everton in the last two transfer windows, with each spending at least £100m or more. Despite this, Moyes has successfully transformed Everton from relegation candidates to European hopefuls by utilizing the resources at his disposal. A key factor in this transformation has been addressing a long-standing weakness in his managerial approach: away form.
Since Moyes' return, Everton has become one of the best-performing teams on the road, with only Arsenal and Manchester City accumulating more points away from home. Everton averages 1.68 points per game on their travels, a significant improvement. Historically, Moyes' teams have struggled with away form, except for his tenure at Manchester United.
At Real Sociedad, Sunderland, and during both spells at West Ham, his teams either failed to reach or barely managed a single point per game away from home. Given that goals have not been Everton's strong point, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall leading the team with seven goals this season, Moyes has focused on making his side tough to break down.
This approach has yielded positive results, with the team taking points from big stadiums like Old Trafford, St James' Park, and Villa Park. However, ahead of the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton's home form is a concern. While their away results have been outstanding, they have managed only six Premier League wins in front of their supporters, leaving them 14th in the home standings. Some argue that this could be due to teething problems at their new home base.
Moyes himself has noted that teams often struggle after moving into a new stadium. The new arena might have impacted the intimidating atmosphere that Goodison Park was known for, with the stadium being more open and the voice of the supporters carrying less weight.
As a result, the pitch may feel less suffocating for opposition players. The statistics indicate that Everton plays differently in front of their own supporters, and this change in style seems to be to their detriment.
Away from home, they are more direct, attempting 107 more long passes and averaging 39.7 percent possession, compared to 47.6 percent at Hill Dickinson. While their attacking record is not significantly affected by this change in style, their defensive performance is. At home, they have scored 21 goals from an expected goals (xG) value of 20.46, while away, they have scored 19 goals from an xG of 22.82. However, when playing with more possession at home, Everton leaves themselves more exposed to losing possession in dangerous areas, which the opposition can capitalize on.
In contrast, their direct approach away from home allows them to clear the ball from their own box more efficiently, giving them more time to regroup when the opposition moves forward. The common mantra during the run-in is that teams must treat every game like a cup final. For Moyes and Everton, this should be tweaked to treating every game like an away match, starting with Sunday's derby against Liverpool.
By adopting this mindset, there is every chance that Moyes can achieve what seemed unthinkable at the start of the campaign: bringing European football back to the blue half of Merseyside. Watch Everton vs Liverpool on Super Sunday from 1 pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event.