Will Arsenal's Limited Open-Play Creativity Prove Costly in the Title Race?

Welcome to The Debrief, where Adam Bate analyzes the latest Premier League matches using a combination of data and opinion. This week, he discusses Arsenal's recent performance, which has raised concerns about their ability to create scoring opportunities from open play. Despite their success with set pieces, the team's lack of creativity in this area has been a recurring theme throughout the campaign. In their recent match against Bournemouth, Arsenal's expected goals total from open play was a mere 0.18, indicating a significant struggle to create chances. While the team has excelled at set pieces, overemphasizing this aspect of their game may be detrimental to their overall momentum. The Gunners spent a substantial amount of time, 26 minutes and 48 seconds, with the ball dead, including six minutes preparing for corners and seven minutes waiting for throw-ins. This approach has led to a 'bitty' game, which has become a common occurrence for Arsenal. In fact, they have had more matches with an open-play expected goals total of 0.3 or lower than Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea combined. This is unusual for a Premier League leader, as the eventual winners of the competition have typically ranked among the top two in open-play creativity. Arsenal currently rank sixth in this metric, below Brighton. The team's reliance on set pieces may explain their struggles with fluency, and they will need to improve their open-play creativity if they are to stay ahead of Manchester City in the title race. Meanwhile, West Ham's Jarrod Bowen has been a consistent performer, with eight assists and eight goals in the Premier League this season. He has been one of the top players in the league for goal involvements since joining West Ham in January 2020. Bowen's consistency is underlined by the fact that only two other players, Mohamed Salah and Bruno Fernandes, have registered more than 10 goal involvements in each of the past six seasons. If he can finish the season strongly, Bowen may join an exclusive club of players who have achieved 20 goal involvements in each of the last three Premier League seasons. Elsewhere, Sunderland's Brian Brobbey has impressed with his ability to hold up the ball, leading the line effectively and providing a valuable outlet for his team. According to statistics, Brobbey has held the ball up 48 times this season, with a higher success rate at retaining possession than any other player near the top of the list. His total of six Premier League goals may seem modest, but all six have been the final goal of the game, directly winning Sunderland eight points.