An analysis of Arne Slot's reasoning behind Liverpool's struggles this season, focusing on missed chances, injuries, and VAR decisions, following their Champions League exit to Paris St-Germain. The Reds' lack of clinical edge in the final third has been a recurring issue, with the team notching 1.92 Expected Goals against the European champions but failing to score. Slot expressed his frustration, stating that this was one of many examples where Liverpool underperformed in terms of xG throughout the season.
Liverpool's xG conversion rate in the Champions League has been underwhelming, scoring 24 goals from 27.8xG, the biggest underperformance among quarter-finalists. However, their Premier League record shows a different picture, with their goals total being just 0.65 below their xG total. The team has missed 59 of 86 clear-cut openings in the top flight, with Curtis Jones, Florian Wirtz, and Alexis Mac Allister among the players with the biggest underperformance of their individual xG totals.
Injuries have also hindered the team, with Alexander Isak struggling with injuries all season, including a broken leg that sidelined him in December. The plan to combine Isak with fellow summer signings Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike in a new-look attack has been disrupted by injuries, and Slot pointed out that he hasn't had a chance to use these three big names together often enough.
The team has also been affected by VAR decisions, with a controversial call on Tuesday overturning a penalty awarded to Mac Allister. Slot has been vocal about the frequency of decisions made by officials going against his side, referencing a Brentford penalty awarded after a VAR check and a Leeds penalty awarded after the referee was sent to look at the monitor by VAR.
With Liverpool's Champions League exit, the pressure is on Slot to secure a top-five finish in the league to secure a Champions League place for next season. Despite this, Slot remains optimistic about the team's future, citing the quality of young players they have brought in, including Ryan Gravenberch, Ekitike, Wirtz, Bradley, and Milos Kerkez, who have their best years ahead of them.