Despite Liam Rosenior's initial optimism, pointing to Chelsea's fourth-place standing in the Premier League upon his appointment, a dismal run of form has raised concerns about the team's trajectory. Following their recent three-goal defeat to Manchester City, Chelsea plummeted to ninth place, exacerbating the pressure on Rosenior.
This loss marked their third consecutive Premier League defeat without scoring, contributing to a dismal record of five losses in six games across all competitions. The question on everyone's mind is whether Chelsea is regressing under Rosenior's stewardship.
Rosenior's tenure began on a positive note, with the team winning their first four Premier League games under his leadership. However, they have only managed to secure one victory in their subsequent seven games.
The unbeaten start to his reign was halted by Arsenal, who also bested them in the Carabao Cup semi-finals. The disparity between Chelsea and the top-tier teams was further highlighted by their defeats to PSG and Manchester City. Sky Sports' Paul Merson noted, 'Rosenior started well, but when Chelsea face the big teams, they get beaten up.' Although Rosenior has overseen impressive wins against Napoli and Aston Villa, the recent loss to Manchester City has fueled supporter pessimism ahead of their upcoming match against Manchester United. Rosenior was tasked with revitalizing the team after Enzo Maresca's tumultuous departure, but his record, three months in, bears a striking resemblance to his predecessor's.
Chelsea has averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, a slight improvement from the 1.48 points per game prior to his appointment. However, this average is the third-lowest for a Chelsea manager since 2004 and falls short of the mark required to secure a Champions League spot. If Chelsea continues at this rate, they will finish the season with a mere 57 points, only five points above Liverpool's current total. The worrying trend of their form suggests that even this modest target may be out of reach unless Rosenior can orchestrate a dramatic turnaround in the coming weeks.
Rosenior has reminded fans that even renowned managers like Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed time to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool, respectively. With only 11 Premier League games under his belt, Rosenior is still in the early stages of his tenure, having taken the reins mid-season amidst challenging circumstances.
He is not responsible for the recruitment decisions that have left the squad lacking in experience and leadership, nor is he accountable for the fatigue resulting from their extensive football schedule, including their Club World Cup campaign last summer. Nevertheless, fans are justified in expecting more from the team. Chelsea's mental fragility is not a new issue, having squandered 15 points from winning positions under Maresca earlier in the season.
However, this problem has become more pronounced under Rosenior, with the team failing to recover from consecutive losses to Leeds and Burnley in February. The recent defeat to Manchester City followed similar collapses against PSG and Everton.
Rosenior has struggled to address Chelsea's disciplinary issues, with the team receiving more cards than any other side since his first Premier League game in charge. The head coach is not accountable for Enzo Fernandez's internal suspension, but it serves as another example of a player overstepping the mark. With only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea trails Liverpool by four points, making their prospects of securing a Champions League finish look bleak. Based on their second-half collapse against Manchester City, Chelsea may soon find themselves looking over their shoulders in the Premier League table.
However, there is some encouragement for Rosenior in the underlying numbers. Despite the damaging recent results, Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been significantly better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals.
In fact, their net expected goals since Rosenior's appointment are the second-highest among Premier League teams, surpassed only by leaders Arsenal. This metric is considered a strong indicator of a team's future performance, and Chelsea's total suggests they have created far superior chances than they have conceded, placing them above Manchester City and Liverpool. While results are paramount, especially at this critical juncture in the season, Rosenior faces an uphill battle to convince Chelsea fans that he is the right person to lead the club forward.