Is Chelsea's Progress Stalling Under Rosenior's Leadership?

Head coach Liam Rosenior had highlighted Chelsea's fourth-place standing in the Premier League prior to their matchup against Manchester City on Sunday. However, after a dismal three-goal defeat at Stamford Bridge, the team plummeted to ninth place under Rosenior's guidance. This loss marked their third consecutive Premier League defeat without scoring, intensifying the pressure on the head coach. Considering their disheartening 8-2 aggregate loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, Chelsea has suffered five losses in six games across all competitions. As they face an uphill battle to secure a top-five finish, questions arise about the team's trajectory under Rosenior. Initially, his tenure began on a positive note, with Chelsea winning their first four Premier League games under his leadership against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Wolves. Nevertheless, they have only managed to win one out of seven games since then. The team's unbeaten Premier League start was ended by Arsenal on March 1, and the Gunners also defeated them in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi-final. The disparity between Chelsea and top-tier teams was further emphasized by their losses to PSG and Manchester City. According to Sky Sports' Paul Merson, 'Rosenior started well but when Chelsea face the big teams, they get beaten up.' Although Rosenior has achieved impressive victories away to Napoli and Aston Villa, the recent loss to Manchester City has led to supporters feeling pessimistic ahead of their upcoming meeting with Manchester United. Rosenior was tasked with getting Chelsea back on track after the tumultuous end to Enzo Maresca's tenure, but his record three months in is strikingly similar. Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per Premier League game under Rosenior, which is a slight increase from 1.48 per game previously this season. However, this average is still the third-lowest by a Chelsea boss since 2004 and falls short of what is required to secure a Champions League spot. If Chelsea continue at this rate, they would finish with just 57 points, only five points higher than Liverpool's current total. The worry is that the trajectory of their form suggests that even this might be unattainable unless the under-fire head coach can oversee significantly improved results in the coming week. Rosenior pointed out that even Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to 'sort things out' at Manchester City and Liverpool, respectively. As the 41-year-old is only 11 Premier League games into his reign, having taken the job mid-season in challenging circumstances, he is not responsible for the recruitment that has left the team with a squad lacking experience and leadership. Moreover, he is dealing with the consequences of the high volume of football they have played, having gone the distance in the Club World Cup last summer. However, fans are still entitled to expect more from the team. Chelsea's mental fragility is not a new issue, as they lost 15 points from winning positions under Maresca in the first half of the season. This problem has become more pronounced under Rosenior, with the team's Premier League form failing to recover from surrendering two and one-goal leads against Leeds and Burnley in consecutive games in February. Sunday's loss to Manchester City followed similar collapses against PSG and Everton. Rosenior has been unable to address Chelsea's issues with ill-discipline, with red cards to Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in consecutive games against Burnley and Arsenal proving costly. Since Rosenior's first Premier League game in charge in January, Chelsea have received more cards than any other side. The head coach is not accountable for the comments that led to Enzo Fernandez's internal two-game suspension, but it is another example of a player stepping out of line. With only six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea trail Liverpool by four points, and their outlook does not appear bright in terms of securing a Champions League finish. Missing out on this prize could have negative consequences for Rosenior. Based on their second-half collapse against Manchester City on Sunday, Chelsea might soon have to start looking over their shoulders in the Premier League table. However, there is some encouragement for Rosenior in the underlying numbers. Recent results have been damaging, but overall, Chelsea's Premier League performances under Rosenior have been much better than earlier in the campaign, according to expected goals. In fact, Chelsea's net expected goals in the three months since Rosenior's appointment is the second-highest among Premier League sides, behind only leaders Arsenal. This expected goal differential is considered one of the strongest indicators of a team's future performance. Chelsea's total shows they have created far better chances than they have conceded, putting them above Manchester City and Liverpool, suggesting their performances since the change of head coach have been better than their results indicate. The graphic highlighting a rolling average of Chelsea's expected goals and expected goals against underscores Rosenior's positive impact in the context of their season. However, the numbers have trended in the wrong direction since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle. Of course, results matter most, especially with so much at stake at this point in the season. After three straight Premier League losses without scoring, following their Champions League demolition by Paris Saint-Germain, Rosenior has his work cut out to convince Chelsea fans he is the right person to take the club forward.