Expert Tips for Aintree Day One: Kevin Blake's 12/1, 11/1, and 3/1 Selections

The Grand National Festival commences at Aintree on Thursday, featuring four Grade One events, and renowned expert Kevin Blake has identified three promising contenders. Following a prolonged winter, the rain has subsided, and Aintree has taken measures to maintain the desired soft track conditions by applying ample water. This sets the stage for an exciting few days of action, and after a successful outing at the Cheltenham Festival, Kevin Blake aims to replicate that success this week. The inaugural race of the week over the Grand National fences is the Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase, scheduled for Thursday at 3:30, and LETS GO CHAMP, trained by Mags Mullins, is an intriguing participant. This 11-year-old has faced training challenges in the past, with a four-year gap between his point-to-point victory and racecourse debut, but his innate talent has been evident from the outset. Under Henry de Bromhead's guidance, LETS GO CHAMP demonstrated improvement and achieved a notable win in a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival two years ago. He subsequently performed admirably in the Galway Plate and the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. After being transferred to Mags Mullins this season for hunter chasing, LETS GO CHAMP made a successful start in point-to-points, defeating Stuzzikini and Journey With Me in an open event at Oldtown in February. He then followed up this victory by winning the prestigious Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase at Gowran Park in March, lowering the colors of Hunters Yarn. The form of these two races has been well-advertised in recent days, positioning LETS GO CHAMP among the top hunter chasers in Ireland. What makes LETS GO CHAMP an appealing choice in this contest is his racing style, characterized by strong traveling and forward-going at mid-range trips, which will serve him well in this test. Additionally, he is a skilled jumper with the right technique for these fences. Although his rider, Sophie Carter, will not be able to utilize her claim in this race, she has ridden him to victory in his last two wins and is familiar with his abilities. In my opinion, LETS GO CHAMP is overpriced. The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase, scheduled for 4:40, is typically a competitive event on paper, but SANS BRUIT, trained by Paul Nicholls, has made it look effortless in winning the last two renewals. The BHA handicapping team has also played a role in this, as SANS BRUIT is a striking example of their cooperative approach when handicapping British-trained runners. After winning this race for the first time off a mark of 130 in 2024, SANS BRUIT performed admirably on several occasions off a much higher mark. However, the handicappers were extremely generous in dropping him 9lb for four below-par runs. This aggressive reduction is unusual by any standard. Following this generous treatment, Paul Nicholls entered SANS BRUIT into this race off the same mark that he had won so convincingly the previous year. He started as the 5-1 favorite and duly came back to life, winning once again. If that were not enough, SANS BRUIT went on to win a similarly valuable handicap chase at Plumpton 18 days later off a 9lb higher mark. It is not a like-for-like comparison, and it will not be found in the rule book, but if this were to occur in Ireland, there would be a price to pay. Not only would the horse be expected to receive a significant rise, but it would also be expected to be slow to be dropped again after such a bountiful harvest. However, this is not how it works in Britain. Far from being slow to drop SANS BRUIT, the BHA handicapping team has once again been incredibly generous, dropping him 11lb for five runs this season that were not that bad. It is clear that SANS BRUIT was being worked towards this race once again, and the handicappers have been more than happy to play along. The extent to which this is barefaced can be demonstrated by the fact that SANS BRUIT was installed as the favorite for this race from the opening show, and I suspect that he will get shorter before he gets longer. I am reminded of a memorable quote from former BHA handicapper Phil Smith, which highlighted the importance of favoring the majority at the expense of the minority when it comes to handicapping. Whether or not SANS BRUIT wins the Red Rum Handicap Chase for the third time in succession – and I strongly fancy him to do so – for the second year in a row, the majority will have valid questions to ask about how generously he has been treated by the handicappers. The final race of interest on the day is the Goffs Nickel Coin Mares' National Hunt Flat Race, scheduled for 5:15, and I quite like the Irish-trained LENNON GROVE, trained by Gavin Cromwell. This five-year-old has ample experience, having won a point-to-point and competed in four bumpers. She won at Thurles in December, but her run of greater interest is her third-place finish in a Listed mares' bumper at Sandown in March. In a race where it seemed advantageous to be prominent, she was held up in rear and made good late gains up what may have been the favored near side. Now that she has secured black type, it is likely that she will be given a slightly more forward ride, and it would not surprise me to see her show more improvement. In my opinion, she is overpriced.