Aintree Day One Selections: Kevin Blake's 12/1, 11/1, and 3/1 Picks

The Grand National Festival commences at Aintree on Thursday, featuring four Grade One events, and expert analyst Kevin Blake shares his top three picks for the day. The highly anticipated Grand National Festival at Aintree has finally arrived. Following a prolonged winter, the dry spell has ended, and Aintree has taken measures to maintain the desired soft track conditions by applying ample water. This promises to be an exhilarating few days of racing, and after a successful stint during the Cheltenham Festival, Kevin Blake aims to replicate that success this week. The first event of the week, the Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase, takes place on Thursday at 3:30, and LETS GO CHAMP, trained by Mags Mullins, is an intriguing contender. The 11-year-old has had a tumultuous training history, with a four-year gap between his point-to-point win and his racecourse debut. However, his talent has been evident from the start. Under Henry de Bromhead, LETS GO CHAMP demonstrated significant improvement, culminating in a notable victory in a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival two years ago. He further showcased his abilities with impressive performances in the Galway Plate and the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. This season, LETS GO CHAMP was transferred to Mags Mullins, with a focus on hunter chasing. He made a stellar debut in point-to-points, defeating Stuzzikini and Journey With Me in an open event at Oldtown in February. He followed this up by winning the prestigious Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase at Gowran Park in March, beating Hunters Yarn. The form of these two races has been well-documented in recent days, establishing LETS GO CHAMP as one of the top hunter chasers in Ireland. What makes LETS GO CHAMP an appealing choice for this contest is his racing style. As a strong-traveling, forward-going horse at mid-range trips, he is well-suited for the challenges of this race. Additionally, he is an exceptional jumper with the ideal technique for these fences. Although his rider, Sophie Carter, cannot utilize her claim in this event, she has ridden him to victory in his last two outings and is familiar with his strengths. In Kevin Blake's opinion, LETS GO CHAMP is overpriced. The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase, scheduled for 4:40, is typically a highly competitive event on paper. However, SANS BRUIT, trained by Paul Nicholls, has made it look effortless in winning the last two renewals. The BHA handicapping team has also played a significant role in his success. After winning this race for the first time with a mark of 130 in 2024, SANS BRUIT performed admirably off a higher mark on several occasions. Nevertheless, the handicappers were extremely generous in dropping him 9lb for four subpar runs. This aggressive reduction is unusual, especially considering the horse had just turned seven. Following this generous treatment, Paul Nicholls entered SANS BRUIT into this race off the same mark as the previous year, and he went on to win convincingly once again. Furthermore, 18 days later, SANS BRUIT won another valuable handicap chase at Plumpton off a 9lb higher mark. It is worth noting that if a similar situation were to occur in Ireland, the horse would likely face severe punishment and would be slow to receive another drop in the ratings. However, this is not the case in Britain. Far from being slow to drop SANS BRUIT, the BHA handicapping team has once again been incredibly generous, dropping him 11lb for five runs this season that were not particularly poor. It is clear that SANS BRUIT was being targeted at this race, and the handicappers have been more than willing to cooperate. The extent of this generosity is evident in the fact that SANS BRUIT was installed as the favorite for this race from the opening show, and Kevin Blake suspects he will only get shorter in the odds. A notable quote from former BHA handicapper Phil Smith emphasizes the importance of favoring the majority at the expense of the minority in handicapping. Whether or not SANS BRUIT wins the Red Rum Handicap Chase for the third consecutive time, the majority will have valid questions to ask about the generosity of his treatment by the handicappers. The final event of interest on the day is the Goffs Nickel Coin Mares' National Hunt Flat Race, scheduled for 5:15. Without the influence of the handicapper, Kevin Blake is drawn to the Irish-trained LENNON GROVE, trained by Gavin Cromwell. The five-year-old has amassed significant experience, having won a point-to-point and competed in four bumpers. Her most notable performance was a third-place finish in a Listed mares' bumper at Sandown in March. In a race where it seemed beneficial to be prominent, she was held up in rear and made notable late gains up the favored near side. Now that she has secured black type, it is likely she will be given a more forward ride, and Kevin Blake would not be surprised to see her show further improvement. In his opinion, LENNON GROVE is overpriced.