Does Erling Haaland Merit a Starting Spot for Manchester City Against Arsenal?

Manchester City's manager, Pep Guardiola, has been experimenting with various tactical formations this season in an effort to unlock the team's creative potential. Some of these changes were made out of necessity, while others were deliberate design choices. Although not all of these tweaks have been successful, they have certainly sparked interesting discussions. The team has tried using two attacking midfielders as full-backs, wingers as central midfielders, and even employing multiple No 10s on the pitch simultaneously. More recently, Guardiola has experimented with a two-striker formation, where Erling Haaland is paired with either Antoine Semenyo or Omar Marmoush. These changes are largely in response to the shifting style and structure of Premier League teams, with many now opting for man-to-man marking. As a result, there has been a significant emphasis on quick transitions and set-piece creation over open-play effectiveness. Guardiola does not entirely subscribe to this approach, as evidenced by City's relatively low percentage of set-piece goals. However, he has acknowledged the team's gradual shift in this direction. This transformation has altered the overall DNA of the league and influenced the types of players being recruited. For instance, City's acquisition of Abdukodir Khusanov, one of the fastest and most aggressive centre-backs in the division, highlights the need for players who excel in individual battles against direct pace. Guardiola has come to realize the benefits of adopting a more vertical style of play, particularly in transition moments. This approach has occasionally benefited Haaland, who has struggled to find the net in recent months. Between August and December, Haaland scored 25 goals, but his tally has since dropped to just five in 2026. At the same point last season, he had already scored 11 times. The question remains as to whether Haaland is the problem. Guardiola has admitted that he is still searching for the perfect formula with his newly evolved City collective, which is far from complete compared to previous teams. The challenge lies in balancing stability and consistency with genuine top-end threat. This is evident in the inconsistent selection of Rayan Cherki, whose talents are valuable in possession but less so when the team loses the ball. Guardiola prefers players who excel in recovery work and duels, which are not Cherki's strengths. Nevertheless, Haaland tends to perform better when Cherki is on the pitch. It is interesting to note that Guardiola's most glowing praise in recent weeks was for the 3-1 FA Cup win over Newcastle, a game in which Haaland was absent due to injury. A few weeks prior, in a 2-1 Premier League victory over Newcastle, Guardiola lauded Haaland's defensive contributions, which is not his primary function. The upcoming Carabao Cup final against Arsenal presents a dilemma for Guardiola. If City have proven to be a more balanced side without Haaland, should he start the Norwegian striker? It seems counterintuitive to bench the league's best striker, especially in a final. Haaland has scored or assisted one in five of City's goals this season, albeit with a dip in form in recent months. The headline issue with City's attack is Haaland's underperformance. Guardiola has acknowledged the team's need for Haaland's goals, citing the connections and interactions that create scoring opportunities. Fatigue, minor injuries, and the quality of opposition have all contributed to Haaland's struggles. The quality of chances he has been presented with has also been a factor, with only 33% of his shots inside the box being deemed 'big chances' since matchweek 22. His conversion rate has dipped to 10.5%, and he has opted to shoot more from outside the box, resulting in a lower xG value. Guardiola has expressed confidence in Haaland's ability to regain his form, but the striker's record in cup finals is a concern, with eight appearances and no goals. Perhaps the argument against starting Haaland strengthens somewhat. However, the dynamism of City's attack against Real Madrid should encourage fans ahead of the Arsenal match. The team's finishing was lacking, but they created numerous chances even without Haaland at his best. Cherki's performance was particularly impressive, showcasing his skill, strength, and determination. Ultimately, Guardiola needs to find the right balance in his team's structure to ensure Haaland receives consistent service in the central zones where he thrives. It is then up to Haaland to break from his recent form and deliver.